华夏中核清洁能源REIT价值分析：成熟水电资产，分派稳健具备性价比

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy REIT project has certain new - share subscription cost - effectiveness. Its underlying asset, the Popona Hydropower Station, is a mature clean - energy infrastructure with stable operation history and good cash - flow sustainability. The short - term and long - term revenue paths are clear, and it is supported by the regional power supply - demand environment [5]. - The competition risk is controllable in the short term, and in the long term, it is expected to benefit from the synergistic effect of upstream reservoirs. The original equity holder has strong strength, which provides a solid guarantee for the project operation. The valuation and distribution of this project are higher than comparable projects [5]. - In the current REITs market after adjustment, the project's new - share subscription is expected to attract investors who focus on stable returns and the energy infrastructure sector. Its listing performance may be promoted by both the support of asset fundamentals and the marginal improvement of market sentiment [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Project Basic Situation - The Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund was registered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on December 9, 2025. The underlying asset is the Popona Hydropower Station in Xinjiang, and the main source of cash - flow is electricity sales revenue [8]. - The project was completed in 2016, with a total installed capacity of 150,000 kilowatts and a designed annual power generation of 666 million kWh. From 2022 to 2025 H1, the company's gross profit margin maintained a good level, with fluctuations mainly due to equipment maintenance,停机避沙, and changes in power generation and electricity price structure [9]. - Except for 2024, the project's water abandonment rate remained at a relatively low level. In 2024, the water - available power generation and actual power generation reached 785 million kWh and 679 million kWh respectively [12]. 3.2 Hydropower Industry Pattern Analysis - Hydropower is an important part of the clean - energy system, currently accounting for about 15% of the national power supply. China's hydropower resources are becoming scarcer, with the installed capacity of conventional hydropower reaching 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [15]. - In 2024, China's power supply - demand was in a "tight balance" state, with the highest power consumption load hitting a record high. The power consumption demand continued to grow steadily, while the new - energy installed capacity expanded rapidly, but its output was volatile [16]. - In Xinjiang, the hydropower operation environment has certain support. The power - market reform is advancing, and the water abandonment situation has improved. The Karakash River Basin has a clear hydropower development plan, and the planned new projects are progressing slowly in the short term, with uncertain long - term impacts [17][18][19]. - In the long - term, the hydropower industry has stable development potential. Pumped - storage power is expected to become a main regulating power source, and hydropower can play a greater role in promoting the "integration of wind, solar and hydropower" [20]. 3.3 Project Stability 3.3.1 Hydrological Conditions and Operation Basis - The hydrological conditions of the Karakash River are stable in the long term. The project can rely on the upstream Wuluwati Water Conservancy Project and its own facilities to adjust operation, which helps to stabilize power generation [22]. 3.3.2 Power Consumption and Dispatching Environment - The Hotan region has long - term power consumption capacity, and the "Power Transmission from Xinjiang" project provides stable support. Hydropower is in the priority dispatching sequence in the local power grid and is less affected by the rapid growth of photovoltaic installation [23]. 3.3.3 Upstream Reservoir and Power Grid Dispatching Synergy Relationship - The project can benefit from the regulation of upstream reservoirs and the "solar - hydro complementarity" dispatching mode. The future upstream reservoir is expected to increase the annual power generation of the Popona Hydropower Station by 5% [24]. 3.3.4 Electricity Price Mechanism and Water Abandonment Situation - In 2025, the power generation of the Popona Hydropower Station is fully included in the priority power - generation plan. From 2026, it will gradually participate in the market - oriented transaction, and the predicted market - oriented electricity price is about 0.25 yuan/kWh (tax - included) [25][26]. - The proportion of market - oriented transactions has been increasing. In 2024, the water - abandonment rate increased significantly due to insufficient grid consumption capacity. In the long - term, the water - abandonment pressure is expected to be alleviated with the improvement of demand and grid capacity [27][30]. 3.4 Original Equity Holder - The original equity holder is Xinjiang Xinhua Hydropower Investment Co., Ltd., which is controlled by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. It is the largest hydropower operator in Xinjiang, with stable operation and profitability [31][33][34]. - After the fund issuance, the wholly - owned subsidiary Yulong Company will be responsible for project operation management, with more than 10 years of operation experience in the Popona Hydropower Station, providing a guarantee for stable project operation [40]. 3.5 Valuation and Distribution Rate 3.5.1 Historical Review of Energy Infrastructure - related REITs - REITs have certain "convertible - bond - like" attributes, related to interest - rate trends and the equity market. Energy infrastructure - related REITs have seen weakening performance since July 2025, but the new - share subscription income of new - issued REITs is still expected to be at a relatively ideal level [41]. 3.5.2 Valuation Analysis - The estimated value of the project's asset group is 1.253 billion yuan (as of June 30, 2025). The estimated annual power generation is 658 million kWh, which is a conservative assumption. The net cash - flow distribution rates for July - December 2025 and 2026 are 6.03% (annualized) and 5.64% respectively, and the IRR for fund investors during the fund's duration is 6.10% [44][45]. - Compared with the only comparable listed hydropower REIT (China Asset Management China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT), the Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy REIT is superior in asset value and cash - flow distribution ability, with more advantages in cash - flow return and distribution stability [46][49].