有色持续反弹，镍领涨

Group 1: Report Core Viewpoints - Last night, copper prices were weak, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling to the 96,000 level. Today, it rebounded and closed at the 98,000 level. Due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday and large short - term gains, there was strong willingness to take profits, causing a sharp drop. Today's improved domestic macro - atmosphere and strong buying support led to a continuous rebound. The narrowing of the spot discount indicated increased industrial procurement willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the 100,000 level [6]. - Aluminum prices oscillated downward last night and rebounded today, recovering the previous night's losses, with overall declining positions. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the rising willingness of funds to take profits and the sharp fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals at high levels affected aluminum prices. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. - Last night, non - ferrous metals tumbled collectively, but nickel prices showed resistance. Today, non - ferrous and precious metals rebounded, and nickel prices increased significantly with rising positions. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 level to the 130,000 level, and have been significantly stronger than the non - ferrous sector in recent days, mainly driven by the policy expectations of Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the highs in March this year and October last year [8]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - In the North China electrolytic copper spot market, despite the sharp decline in copper prices, demand did not improve significantly as most downstream enterprises were on holiday for New Year's Day or had completed pre - holiday stockpiling. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 224,300 tons, up 22,100 tons from the 25th and 44,300 tons from the 22nd [10]. Aluminum - On December 29, 2025, the Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that from January 1, 2026, the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities would be adjusted. The tariffs on unwrought aluminum alloy (tariff number 76012000) and aluminum scrap (tariff number 76020000) remained unchanged compared with 2025. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 638,000 tons, up 26,000 tons from the 25th and 50,000 tons from the 22nd [10]. Nickel - On December 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 128,400 - 136,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 132,550 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][12][13]. Aluminum - The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].