铁合金日报-20251230

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Black Metal Daily Report, Ferroalloy Daily Report [1][3] - Date: December 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5750, daily change +74, weekly change +102, trading volume 232982 (-85107), open interest 231184 (-544) [2] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5942, daily change +80, weekly change +120, trading volume 262830 (-28054), open interest 278271 (+14109) [2] Spot - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Jiangsu, and Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton, in Qinghai by 30 yuan/ton [2] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia increased by 60 yuan/ton, in Ningxia by 50 yuan/ton, in Guangxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu and Tianjin by 30 yuan/ton [2] Basis/Spread - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract -350 (-24, -52), Ningxia - Main contract -350 (-24, -52), Qinghai - Main contract -420 (-44, -22), Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia 350 (0, 0), SF - SM spread -192 (-6, -18) [2] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract -292 (-20, -40), Ningxia - Main contract -372 (-30, -90), Guangxi - Main contract -222 (-60, -70), Guangxi - Inner Mongolia 70 (-40, -30) [2] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump 41.5 (0, 0), South African semi - carbonate 34.8 (+0.1, +0.3), Gabon lump 42.5 (0, -0.3) [2] - Blue Coke Small Material: Shaanxi 770 (0, 0), Ningxia 840 (0, -30), Inner Mongolia 750 (0, 0) [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost push, short - term volatility is bullish [5][6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Key Points for Each Product - Silicon Ferrosilicon: On the 30th, spot prices rose 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly due to poor profits. Demand is expected to increase after blast furnace复产 in January. Costs are stable. Market sentiment is positive, short - term volatility is bullish [5] - Manganese Silicon: On the 30th, manganese ore spot was stable to strong, and manganese silicon spot rose 20 - 60 yuan/ton. Supply will be stable with new capacity coming on - stream. Demand will be supported by blast furnace复产 in January. Costs are firm due to falling port inventories. Market sentiment is positive, short - term volatility is bullish [5] Group 4: Important Information - On the 30th, Tianjin Port's Australian lump (Mn41.2%) was quoted at 41.5 yuan/ton degree, semi - carbonate (Mn36.6%, Fe4.6%) at 35 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) at 43 yuan/ton degree, and CML Australian lump (Mn47%) at 44 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December, there were 65 silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in production with 217 submerged arc furnaces. The average monthly start - up rate was 44.58% (-2.47% compared to November), and the output was expected to be 46.45 tons (-0.41%, -4.87% YoY). The cumulative output in 2025 was 552.69 tons (-4.71 tons, -0.84% compared to 2024) [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Ferrosilicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5492 | -172 | | Ningxia | 5593 | -293 | | Shaanxi | 5577 | -307 | | Qinghai | 5911 | -631 | | Gansu | 5759 | -459 | [14] Manganese Silicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5778 | -188 | | Ningxia | 5880 | -360 | | Guangxi | 6231 | -531 | | Guizhou | 6119 | -469 | [20]