银河期货航运日报-20251230

Group 1: Market Data - EC2602 closed at 1795.1 points on December 30, down 1.53% from the previous day's closing price. EC2604 closed at 1160.2 points, down 0.83%; EC2606 at 1370.0 points, down 0.29%; EC2608 at 1500.1 points, up 0.16%; EC2610 at 1056.0 points, up 0.12%; EC2612 at 1308.0 points, down 18.49% [4]. - The SCFIS European line reported 1742.64 points on December 26, up 9.66% month - on - month. The SCFI: Shanghai - Europe was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% month - on - month [4][6]. - WTI crude oil near - month was at 57.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.55% month - on - month and down 18.55% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month was at 61.26 dollars/barrel, up 1.54% month - on - month and down 17.4% year - on - year [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market is continuously debating the high point and path of January freight rates. The EC futures market experienced a callback and oscillation today. MSK released a quote of 2700 US dollars for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in WK3, a small increase of 100 compared to last week. The subsequent market booking situation should be monitored [6]. - There are still differences in the high point and path of January freight rates in the spot market. The supply and demand situation has changed, with 12 - 1 month shipments expected to gradually improve. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in December was 260,000 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in January and February 2026 is expected to be 316,100 and 279,200 TEU respectively. The shipping capacity in December decreased by 5% compared to last week, while that in January increased by 5.5% [7]. - The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks is still tortuous. After Maersk's trial voyage on the India - East Coast of the United States route through the Red Sea, CMA CGM's Jacques Saadé and Adonis passed through the Suez Canal, strengthening the expectation of a phased resumption of navigation, which may suppress the far - month contracts [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit at high levels, and the remaining light positions can be held at the discretion of the investor. Pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed due to the resumption of navigation expectations [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. Group 3: Industry News - The "Listing and Operation of Shipping Index Futures" project of the Shanghai Futures Exchange won the Special Prize of the Financial Innovation Achievement Award in the 2023 - 2024 Shanghai Financial Innovation Award [10]. - US President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear and missile programs, threatening to strike Iran again. He also mentioned that Hamas should be disarmed and would face consequences if it fails to do so [10][11].