固定收益点评：债市大幅调整，原因几何？

Group 1: Report's Core Information - The report is a fixed - income review titled "Why has the bond market adjusted significantly?" dated December 30, 2025, written by analysts Yan Ziqi and Hong Ziyan [1][2][3] Group 2: Events - On December 29, Treasury bond futures in the morning session broke through multiple points, followed by a decline in spot bonds, and the yield to maturity of 30 - year Treasury bonds rose significantly throughout the day [3][9] Group 3: Reasons for Bond Market Decline - From a news perspective, it is a pricing of the weekend policy combination. The release of the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)" on December 26 made the bond market conjecture a lower probability of interest rate cuts next year, and the National Fiscal Work Conference on December 28 raised concerns about intensified supply - demand contradictions [5][10] - In a bearish market, the market is more likely to believe in pessimistic narratives. Short - term factors include securities firms' selling and a lack of承接 institutions, especially at the end of the year when there are few long - bond承接 institutions, with only insurance institutions as relatively strong buyers [5][10] Group 4: Over - pricing Analysis - In recent weeks, it has been normal for the bond market to decline sharply on Monday/Tuesday and slowly recover from Wednesday to Friday. Considering factors such as the 3 - day trading week, the end - of - year behavior of banks and securities firms, and the trading environment, there is a possibility of recovery, and an over - callback + slow - recovery pattern may be a pricing paradigm [5][11] Group 5: Short - term Concerns - On December 31, pay attention to whether the 30 - year Treasury bonds in the issuance plan are new issues or follow - on issues. Different situations will have different impacts on bond pricing and liquidity [6][11] - After the New Year, observe whether insurance institutions switch to selling Treasury bonds to verify if the purchase of ultra - long bonds at the end of the year is for liquidity management [6][11] - After the New Year, focus on the "good start" of bank credit, whether the divergence between certificates of deposit and the money market continues, and whether there is a possibility of tightening in the money market [6][11]