Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-30 10:24Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the daily K-line focusing on support around 5360 and resistance around 5580. The supply surplus situation is expected to continue, and the international oil price has limited upside potential [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene is 5487 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the settlement price is 5491 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The trading volume is 14907 lots, down 15784 lots; the open interest is 27128 lots, up 1212 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets are 5487 yuan/ton, 5360 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, and 5206 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5375 yuan/ton and 5040 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 664 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 671.36 dollars/ton, down 3.73 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 62.74 dollars/barrel, and the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 534.63 dollars/ton, down 7.62 dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 74.89%, down 0.05%; the weekly output is 43.63 tons, down 0.03 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 27.3 tons, up 1.3 tons. The production cost is 5109 yuan/ton, down 52.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 201 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 70.7%, up 1.57%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 74.04%, 78.15%, 62.98%, and 63.6% respectively, up 4.84%, 3.22%, 1.63%, and 4% respectively [2]. Industry News - From December 19th to 25th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83%. From December 20th to 26th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 2.59% to 71.07%. As of December 29th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 30 tons, up 9.89% from last week. From December 20th to 26th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of pure benzene continues to accumulate and remains at a high level. The profit of petroleum benzene has slightly recovered and is in a repair trend. A 210,000 - ton petroleum benzene plant in the Northeast and a hydrogenated benzene plant in the Northwest and Southwest will restart, and the domestic output of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale styrene plants is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; the caprolactam industry continues to cut production to maintain prices, and a small number of plants will resume production; the operating rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid plants are expected to increase. The supply - demand gap in the spot market narrows slowly, and the supply surplus is expected to continue. In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela and between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of deterioration in the short term, and the supply pressure of international crude oil remains, so the upside potential of oil prices is limited. BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2].