铁矿日报：港口库存往下游转移，年底补库博弈较强-20251230

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the disturbance of macro events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable supply, slight recovery in demand, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills. Coupled with the futures discount under the back structure + positive basis of futures contracts, the spot and futures will form a certain resonance in the short term, showing a trend of gradually strengthening in oscillation [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated and slightly declined during the day, closing at 789 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5 yuan/ton or -0.94% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 297,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 16,000 to 614,000 lots. The settled funds were 10.651 billion yuan. Although the disk price corrected, it still showed a relatively strong overall trend [1] - Spot price: The mainstream varieties of port spot, PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 3 to 807 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 692 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.85 (+1.68) US dollars/ton. The spot price strengthened slightly, and the swap price still showed a relatively strong upward breakthrough [1] - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 846.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 57.7 yuan/ton, with the basis widening again. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 20 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, with certain support below the futures price, continuing the trend of gradually strengthening [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply side is relatively stable, and attention should be paid to weather disturbances in the first quarter [2] - Demand: The sample molten iron production has gradually stabilized. Currently, steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still weak. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The game of inventory replenishment at the end of the year is intense. With large - scale accumulation of port inventory, small - scale replenishment by steel mills, and strong upstream - downstream game, the stabilization of molten iron and pre - festival inventory replenishment support the iron ore price. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and slightly strengthen [2] Macro - level Analysis - United States: The economic aggregate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, but the growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, a month - on - month decline of 3.8 points, lower than the market expectation of 91.0, reflecting that residents' judgment on the economic and employment prospects tends to be cautious. In terms of policy expectations, under the combination of "growth resilience + weakening confidence", the Fed is more inclined to be cautiously loose. In the manufacturing industry, the recovery of factory orders is moderate, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepens [3][4] - China: The demand recovery in November was slow, consumption and investment were under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profit from January to November still had a slight positive increase, and the economy showed "stabilization at a low level" with policy support still in place. There is industry differentiation: the equipment manufacturing industry led the growth (+7.2%, with some industries having high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerated (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turned positive, and the automobile industry weakened slightly (-0.3%). The improvement in profits mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery. If demand fails to keep up and the base increases, there will still be constraints in the future [4]