钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillates with a daily decline of 0.10%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals are relatively weak, and the steel price in the off - season continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillates weakly with a daily decline of 0.33%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, which improves the supply - demand pattern and supports the price. However, the demand toughness is questionable, and the inventory level is high. The upward driving force is expected to be weak. The subsequent trend will mainly continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillates at a high level with a daily decline of 0.44%, with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, benefiting from the spot structural contradiction and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, iron ore runs strongly at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Shanghai's first publicly disclosed residential land acquisition: Lingang Holdings had a plot of land repurchased by the land reserve center for 2.625 billion yuan. The land area is about 78,700 square meters, and the above - ground floor area is 188,800 square meters [7]. - In 2026, the "national subsidy" for the household appliance industry will continue, and the industry will enter a new cycle of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. The new round of subsidy policy is expected to promote market consumption structure upgrading and the transformation of industries such as household appliances and automobiles to be green, intelligent, and high - end [8]. - South Korea extended the term of the provisional anti - dumping duty on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan by 5 months, from September 23, 2025, to June 22, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Location | Specification | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | Shanghai | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,270 | 0 | | Rebar | Tianjin | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,170 | 0 | | Rebar | National Average | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,326 | 1 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Shanghai | 4.75mm | 3,280 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tianjin | 4.75mm | 3,190 | 10 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | National Average | 4.75mm | 3,294 | - 1 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | Q235 | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap | - | ≥6mm | 2,080 | - 10 | | PB Powder | Shandong Port | - | 794 | - 5 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate | - | Wet - basis | 782 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | - | 8.80 | - 0.10 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | - | 23.28 | - 0.15 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | - | 107.30 | 0.15 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | - | 108.85 | 1.00 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | - | 10 | 0 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | - | 1,190 | 10 | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,134 | - 0.10 | 3,148 | 3,128 | 635,547 | - 415,599 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,282 | - 0.33 | 3,298 | 3,278 | 311,439 | - 200,543 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | | Iron Ore | - | 789.0 | - 0.44 | 800.0 | 786.5 | 297,023 | - 164,905 | 613,601 | - 16,080 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: It includes the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron Ore Inventory: It includes the inventory of 45 ports in China, its seasonal changes, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [21][22][25]. - Steel Mill Production: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand are weakly stable. The supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level, providing support for the steel price, but the positive effect is weakening. The demand continues to be weak and will seasonally decline, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, but the high inventory weakens the positive effect. The demand is good but the toughness is questionable. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The port inventory is rising. The demand is weakening while the supply remains high. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [38].