中国商品期货跨境套利周报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum, Palladium, Lead, Zinc: Potential [4] - Natural Gas (TFU - HH): On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the US dollar index expected to range between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6] - For some commodities, due to factors such as price differences, inventory changes, and import - export windows, specific cross - market arbitrage strategies are recommended, including holding or adding positions for some, and observing for others [4][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Gold: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread trended higher. This week, with a neutral valuation of the price difference, short - term observation is recommended [12] - Silver: Last week, the price fluctuated sharply, and the domestic - foreign price difference rose and then fell. This week, due to short - term sentiment - driven and increased risk of irrational fluctuations, short - term observation is recommended [18] - Platinum: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference was still high, much higher than the import cost. This week, continue to hold or add long NYMEX, short GFEX positions [24] - Palladium: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference narrowed, but the domestic premium was still higher than the import cost. This week, continue to hold or add long NYMEX, short GFEX positions [31] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Last week, domestic copper inventory accumulated in the off - season, and the import window was in loss. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [38] - Aluminum: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots started to accumulate, and LME aluminum inventory continued to decline. The short - term price ratio oscillated. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [43] - Zinc: Last week, early - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic inventory has room to decline while LME inventory is rising. This week, roll in short LME zinc, long SHFE zinc [52] - Lead: Last week, domestic lead inventory may accumulate, LME lead inventory decreased, and the import window opened. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [53] - Nickel: Last week, the import window opened, the balance ratio dropped, and inventories were relatively high. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [58] - Tin: Last week, the domestic - foreign price ratio rebounded, the import window was closed, and the import loss was 14,018 yuan/ton. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65] Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Last week, the price difference oscillated narrowly with no obvious driver. This week, observation is recommended [70] Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, the SC - Brent price difference oscillated. This week, due to stable Middle - East crude oil spot, falling freight, and uncertain Russian supply, observation is recommended [74] Agriculturals - Soybean: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom, and US soybeans declined weakly. This week, short - term observation is recommended [80] - Sugar: Last week, both domestic and foreign markets rebounded from low levels, and the price difference oscillated narrowly. This week, short - term observation is recommended [83] - Natural Gas (20 - rubber): Last week, the price difference was in a no - arbitrage state, and supply may increase without a demand surge. This week, observation is recommended [88] Overseas Arbitrage - COMEX - LME Copper: Last week, the market digested the Fed's hawkish stance, and the price difference may rise. This week, arbitrage is on hold [94] - Brent - Dubai EFS: Last week, the EFS oscillated. This week, due to stable Middle - East crude oil spot and US production resilience, observation is recommended [99] - WTI - Brent: Last week, the price difference oscillated. This week, with high US refinery operation and stable US production, the price difference driver is limited, so observation is recommended [105] - Natural Gas (TFU - HH): Last week, the price difference oscillated and rebounded weakly. This week, due to large holiday fluctuations, temporary exit for observation is recommended. After the holiday, pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing [110]