银河期货白糖日报-20251230

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, December 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,275, up 10 (0.19%), volume 12,287 (down 4068), open interest 66,801 (up 2788) [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,271, up 6 (0.11%), volume 3,435 (down 548), open interest 15,210 (down 1900) [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,258, up 5 (0.10%), volume 202,265 (down 58809), open interest 425,612 (down 6682) [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5420, Kunming 5220, Wuhan 5650, Nanning 5360, Rizhao 5545, Xi'an 5820, with no price changes [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 149, Kunming -51, Wuhan 379, Nanning 89, Rizhao 274, Xi'an 549 [3] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -13, down 1; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, up 5; SR09 - SR01: Spread 4, up 4 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: Quota - in price 4091, out - of - quota price 5199, spread with Liuzhou 221, with Rizhao 346, with futures 72 [3] - Thailand import: Quota - in price 4139, out - of - quota price 5262, spread with Liuzhou 158, with Rizhao 283, with futures 9 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Thailand (2025/26 season as of Dec 27): Cumulative cane crush 1407.33 million tons (down 16.71% YoY), sugar production 127.93 million tons (down 15.83% YoY) [5] - India: 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota 2.2 million tons (down 50,000 tons from 2025) [5] - Guangxi: December sugar production estimated 170 - 180 million tons (down from 223.9 million tons last year), sales 70 - 80 million tons conservatively, may exceed 1 million tons with pre - sales and point - price sugar [6][8] - Maharashtra, India: As of Dec 28, 2025, cane crush 51.53 million tons, sugar production 4.4782 million tons [8] Logic Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar supply pressure eases as it enters the end of the harvest season. Northern hemisphere is in the production cycle, and the final output may affect the market. Short - term, ICE sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate slightly stronger [9] - Domestic: Sugar prices are at a low level. High production costs, a bottom - building trend in ICE sugar, and rising import costs support the market. However, the peak production season and global sugar production increase expectations limit the upside [9] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Brazil's harvest is ending, international sugar prices are bottom - building. Domestic market may oscillate near the current platform, and higher international prices may drive the domestic market [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, basis, and futures spreads [13][14][17]