有色金属日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals shows different characteristics in various sub - sectors, with some showing strong trends and others facing uncertainties. Each metal's market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy [1][2][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions and recovered half of its decline during the session. The domestic spot copper was reported at 97,620 yuan, and the discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong converged to 240 yuan and 185 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap spread was about 3,500 yuan. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to smelter production schedules and social inventory changes [1] Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened to - 200 yuan, - 410 yuan, and - 285 yuan respectively. The trend of non - ferrous and precious metals is highly consistent recently, and the fundamental driving force in the aluminum market is insufficient. The upward - trending and volatile pattern of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and long positions should be held based on the 40 - day moving average. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, and the price difference is maintained at around 1,000 yuan. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and costs may decline as bauxite prices fall. There is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of the alumina spot price is slowing down as it approaches the level that triggers production cuts, but it will take large - scale production cuts for prices to stabilize in the medium term. The maintenance of primary aluminum delivery - brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the upward movement of the market. However, battery companies are conducting year - end inventory checks and have suspended spot purchases for 3 - 7 days, so Shanghai aluminum faces obvious pressure at around 17,500 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price is stronger than the overseas price, and the spot import window is open. Affected by the influx of low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom around the cost level, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2][3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed, so the pressure on the zinc supply side is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic, and there are high expectations for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are hopes for the return of national subsidies, and downstream demand for pre - Spring Festival stockpiling still exists, so consumption may not decline in the off - season. However, the real estate sector is still a drag, restricting the upward space of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price has risen again, and market trading is active. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association has reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, downstream purchasing willingness has weakened, and the continuous high spot premium has reduced the willingness of traders to hoard goods, so spot trading is rather sluggish. In the stainless - steel market, the recovery of the nickel - iron price has pushed up costs, but overall profits have recovered, and the previous stainless - steel production cuts have had limited impact. Social inventories have decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness is reflected in increased inquiries. The high - grade nickel - iron is quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price rebound is being transmitted. In the short term, the market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5] Tin - The weighted position of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the spot tin price has been lowered by 20,000 yuan to 311,500 yuan. Wait for this week's social inventory data and track changes in holding enterprises. There are no new geopolitical news recently. Pay attention to the possible mining conference around the New Year. With high volatility, it is recommended to hold the 350,000 yuan sell - call option again and observe the adjustment range [5] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened low and closed high, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited, and they have sufficient pre - Spring Festival stockpiles, so they are cautious about high prices. Overall market trading is rather light. The total market inventory has decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore - end price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered a trend - halting stage, and risk prevention should be noted [6] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to decline slightly. The spot price increased slightly, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was reported at 52,500 yuan/ton. The final output of downstream silicon wafers in December was unexpectedly revised down, so the production schedule for January may be slightly increased. However, the production start - up rate in the battery cell segment is expected to continue to decline in January. The polysilicon factory inventory is at a high level, and inventory is maintained. With weak real - world demand and strengthened pre - holiday trading supervision, the polysilicon futures market is mainly in a correction, but the policy expectation of "anti - internal support" still provides emotional support. The overall trend is expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [6] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The overall operating rate in the northwest main production area last week had limited fluctuations. Although there were news of production cuts during the day, the certainty of implementation remains uncertain. The demand side continues to be under pressure. The organic silicon sector is supported by joint emission - reduction factors, and it is expected that the decline in the industrial silicon procurement demand in January will narrow. The demand from the polysilicon end may weaken marginally again. The upward momentum of the futures market in the future depends on the implementation rhythm of production - cut expectations. Coupled with the continued marginal weakening of the demand side, the upward momentum will gradually decline, and the trend is likely to shift from a relatively strong oscillation to a consolidation pattern [7]