鸡蛋日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the near - month egg futures contracts are expected to be weak in a range, and it is advisable to consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. The year 2026 will see a relief in supply pressure in the first half due to significant culling and limited restocking in 2025. Egg spot prices are expected to gradually strengthen after the Chinese New Year, but the upside is limited as it is the off - season for demand. The supply in the second half of 2026 is uncertain. If egg prices are high in the first half, farmers may reduce culling and increase restocking, which will increase supply pressure. If prices are low, culling will increase and restocking will decrease, leading to a significant reduction in supply and a strong boost to spot prices. The second half is the peak season for egg consumption, so prices are likely to rise, with the magnitude depending on the supply situation [8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Spreads: JD01 closed at 3072, up 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3541, down 13; JD09 closed at 4066, up 14. The 01 - 05 spread was - 469, up 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 525, down 27; the 09 - 01 spread was 994, up 10. - Ratio with Feed Grains: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.33, up 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.78, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.99, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.27, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.41, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The main production area average price was 3 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main sales area average price was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged. Most of the national mainstream egg prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong showing little change, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens was 3.89 yuan/jin, unchanged. The prices in various regions such as Handan and Shijiazhuang remained stable [2]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Cost and Profit: The average price of culled chickens was 3.89 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the cost of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was - 0.03 yuan, down 1.16 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2352 yuan, up 6 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3134 yuan, unchanged; the compound feed for egg - laying hens was 2.59 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In November, the national laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, down 80 million from the previous month and up 5.5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories in December 2025, November 2025, February 2026, and March 2026 are 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively. As of December 18, the weekly culled hen output in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change; the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged. The weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7023 tons, with little change and at a historical low [4][5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly up; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly down; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly up [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage and Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].