棉花、棉纱日报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - term due to factors like the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. However, there may be short - term回调 risks as cotton prices rose rapidly on Friday [6][7]. - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 95, 100, and 100 respectively; CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts decreased by 350, 95, and 160 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - Spot Market: CCIndex3128B increased by 262 to 15541 yuan/ton, Cot A remained at 74.20 cents/pound, and the prices of some other varieties had different changes [2]. - Spread: In the cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spreads and their changes varied; in the inter - variety spreads, the spreads and their changes also showed different trends [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - US Retail and Inventory Data: In October 2025, the US clothing and apparel retail sales reached $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales reached $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the US clothing and apparel retailer inventory was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. In September 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.17, a year - on - year decrease of 0.15 and a month - on - month increase of 0.03 [4]. - Zhangjiagang Cotton Inventory: As of December 22, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 34,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The proportion of cotton from different countries changed. The inventory had a net increase, and it is expected that Brazilian cotton will continue to increase, while Australian cotton will mainly be out of storage [5]. - National Cotton Inspection: As of December 28, 1088 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1013 enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [5]. Trading Logic - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the fundamentals of cotton. China's recent signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price has an obvious upward trend, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6][7]. Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [9]. - Options: Wait - and - see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The Zhengzhou cotton futures are at a high level but are expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and only medium - and high - count yarns are performing well. The full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales, and small and medium - sized weaving mills are expected to have holidays during the New Year's Day [10]. Third Part: Options - Option Contract Data: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, and other indicators [12]. - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - Option Strategy: Wait - and - see [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [16][19][23][24].