软商品日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with spot sales poor but prices stable. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory is low year - on - year, and sales progress is fast, supporting the market. As of December 25, 669.7 million tons of lint cotton was processed, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15, commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, and their finished product inventory is not high. Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong and volatile trend, and industries can look for hedging opportunities, with current operation being to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. As of December 27, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production was 127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.06 million tons. In Brazil, rainfall increased in December. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow and output decreased year - on - year. In the short term, the northern hemisphere has a strong production increase expectation, so the sugar price rebound is limited. In the long - term, major producers may have production cuts next year, and weather conditions should be monitored [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%, and the destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17%. The market trading logic is shifting to demand. The quality of apples this year is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance to sell of traders and farmers may affect destocking. Currently in the off - season, demand has decreased, and market sentiment is bearish. Operation should remain bearish [4] 20 - number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices fluctuated sharply, butadiene rubber BR futures prices dropped, and domestic natural and synthetic rubber spot prices were stable. Global natural rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period, with Chinese Yunnan fully stopped, Hainan gradually stopping, and Vietnam to follow. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose significantly. China's all - steel tire operating rate decreased, semi - steel tire operating rate increased, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory rose. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 52.5 million tons this week, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and upstream butadiene port inventory increased to 4.33 million tons. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are expected to be strong, and BR should be observed [5] Pulp - Pulp prices rose today, but the short - term increase may be limited due to weak downstream demand. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 190.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.7 million tons from the previous period, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease. In November, China imported 324.6 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 44 million tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supports softwood pulp. Paper mills purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the pulp market is highly competitive. Operation should be to wait and see [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. External quotes decreased, domestic prices were weak, and short - term arrivals will decrease. As of December 26, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 5.83 million cubic meters, a 7.75% week - on - week decrease. As of December 26, national port timber inventory was 254 million cubic meters, a 2.31% month - on - month decrease. Low inventory supports prices. Operation should be to wait and see [7]