农产品日报-20251230

1. Report Investment Ratings - Bullish (★★★): Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - Bearish (★★★): Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs - Neutral (★☆☆): Eggs [1] - Unclear (White Star): Domestic Soybeans [1] 2. Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand balance and inventory levels. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Domestic Soybeans - The main contract of domestic soybeans is relatively strong. The auction price is slightly lower than the previous two times but still firm, and the spot purchase price has increased. South American new - season soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, with improved weather in Brazil and Argentina [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to drop to about 1.8 million tons, with reduced soybean meal output. The downstream feed demand is weak, and the end - of - month inventory may remain high at about 1 million tons. The trading logic focuses on concerns about US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. The price of soybean meal will oscillate at the bottom following US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil reduced positions, and prices rebounded. South American new - season soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and domestic soybean crushing volume remains high. There are concerns about the customs clearance rhythm of domestic soybeans. Malaysian palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and the short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market rebounded slightly today. Due to the delay in Australian seed crushing, the inventory of coastal rapeseed oil mills remains low. The EU slightly adjusted the rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet. The rapeseed futures price is under medium - term pressure but lacks short - term driving forces, so it is recommended to wait and see [6] Corn - The main corn futures contract C2603 opened high and closed low, down 0.31%. The spot price in Northeast and North ports is strong. The resumption of low - price old wheat auctions in early 2026 may suppress corn prices. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high, and the Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] Live Hogs - The main live hog 03 contract continued to rise and hit a new high, but other contracts did not break through yesterday's high. Some provinces started second - fattening replenishment in late December. Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year, so it is recommended to short on rallies for the 03 contract [8] Eggs - Egg futures adjusted weakly with a small reduction in positions. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation, showing an oversupply situation. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be stronger. The second - half - year peak - season contracts have high premiums, and the trading rhythm may be volatile [9]