油脂产业周报：节前油脂宽幅震荡运行，等待产地驱动-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver remains in the overseas origin markets. The weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils, and the market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - In the short - term, due to the lack of trend drivers, it is advisable to treat it as a short - term range. As palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year, the pressure in the palm oil origin will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We can wait to see if it will start to rise after inventory destocking [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil origin. Malaysia's inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve the supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down the destocking pace. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which is in line with market expectations, but it has limited short - term benefits [1]. - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed to the first quarter of 2026, and the allocation ratio is uncertain [1]. - The negotiation between China and Canada shows no positive trend. However, the global new - season rapeseed harvest and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds have eased the supply tension, weakening the support for rapeseed oil. If the relationship between China and Canada recovers, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations No relevant content provided. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term low - level volatile adjustment, with a possibility of rebound in the first quarter of next year. - Price range: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8200 - 8800], Y2605 in the range of [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 in the range of [8600 - 9500]. - Technical analysis: Treat it with a short - term low - level consolidation mindset for single - side trading. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads. - Basis strategy: Currently, view the basis with a short - term weak - volatility mindset. - Monthly spread strategy: None for now. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices: Palm oil 01 is at 8646 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 8658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8534 yuan/ton with a 1.52% increase; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4072 ringgit/ton with a 0.62% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 8590 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 [24]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices: Soybean oil 01 is at 8150 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase; Soybean oil 05 is at 7878 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; Soybean oil 09 is at 7756 yuan/ton with a 0.03% decrease; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 49.26 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8220 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 [24]. - Rapeseed oil futures and spot daily prices: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9653 yuan/ton with an increase of 178; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9040 yuan/ton with a decrease of 6; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 8997 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton with an increase of 1; East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10130 yuan/ton with an increase of 250 [24]. - Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 12 yuan/ton with an increase of 20; Y - P 01 is - 444 yuan/ton with an increase of 38; etc. [25]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2130000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 220000 tons. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1089000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of 3.07%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [26][27]. - Negative Information: Favorable weather conditions in South America for soybean harvest, light trading before the New Year holiday, and the start of sporadic soybean harvesting in Brazil have weakened the upward space of the US soybean market. The ICE Canadian rapeseed futures market closed lower, mainly reflecting sufficient supply. The import of soybeans is still sufficient despite the oil mills' intention to hold prices [28]. - Spot Transaction Information: Recent oil transactions have remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [30]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and high - frequency export data; Origin weather information [40]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The oil market continued to fluctuate widely this week. The pressure in the origin has not been cleared, lacking a trend - driven upward momentum. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the global oil market demand expansion is limited. The recent positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious. Foreign capital has insufficient confidence in the oil sector [39]. - Basis Structure: This week, the main basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. Due to high domestic oil inventories and general downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [42]. - Monthly Spread Structure: The oil market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of soybean oil became shallower, and the weak reality continued to suppress the disk. The spot end of palm oil is still weak, but the expected decrease in supply pressure in the first quarter of next year has injected a premium into the 05 contract. There is still a supply gap in the near - month rapeseed oil, but it is expected to ease over time [42]. - Spread Structure: This week, the rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads rebounded slightly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts destocking, the support improves, and the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [49]. 3.3.2 External Market This week, the external market fluctuated. The pressure in the palm oil origin remained unchanged, with insufficient weather disturbances and limited expectations for Indonesia's B50. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and the US soybean lacks positive drivers, showing a weak oscillation. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and the US soybean oil has declined, dragging down the international palm oil, which also remained weak [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain This week, the POGO spread rebounded slightly as the palm oil price stabilized, and the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels increased slightly. The BOHO spread continued to weaken due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, and the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [56]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the origin price has been consolidating at a low level, and the import profit has changed slightly with a limited profit range. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the profit weakened again near the end of the year [58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in December, but the export boost was insufficient. It is expected that an inventory inflection point may be seen in January [62]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. As it enters the production - reduction season in the origin, the willingness to sell is limited. Considering the easy solidification of palm oil in winter and the negative basis, domestic orders are not expected to increase. We can wait for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [64]. - Soybean Oil: In December, the arrival of raw materials decreased, and the crushing volume declined. Although the current inventory pressure is large and the overall supply is relatively loose, the seasonal shortage of soybean arrivals in the first quarter needs attention [64]. - Rapeseed Oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseeds are arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory is mainly in the process of destocking. With the global rapeseed harvest, the cost price is weak. More Australian rapeseeds will arrive next year, and if the China - Canada relationship improves, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [64]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction In the short - term, the inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. After the festival stocking ends, the boost to the market is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [67].