沥青日报：高开后震荡运行-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate. It suggests keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is expected to decline due to refinery production changes and geopolitical risks, while demand varies regionally with northern winter - storage demand and southern general demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a relatively low level [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rose 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years. In January 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%). Some Shandong refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and Zhongyou Gaofu plans to stop production [1]. - Demand: Most downstream industries' operating rates declined last week. Road asphalt operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to 20% due to funds and weather. Northern road construction is ending, and subsequent rigid demand will slow, but winter - storage demand is being released. Southern demand is generally average, and low - price supplies from southern refineries are decreasing [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly last week but remains near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical factor: The US sanctions on Venezuela have caused concerns about the export of heavy crude oil, which may affect domestic asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has widened again [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 1.47% to 3038 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3017 yuan/ton, the highest was 3053 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,149 to 118,184 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract remained at - 98 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries like Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate rose 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, 5.4 percentage points higher than last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September 2025. From January to November 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of December 26, most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 4 percentage points to 20% due to funds and weather [1][4]. - Social financing: From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries rose 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% compared to the week of December 19, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [4].