银河期货农产品日报-20251230

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily - Date: December 30, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: Today's price is 109.01, next - working - day price is 108.70, with a decrease of 0.31 - 6 - fruit average wholesale price: Today's price is 7.83, next - working - day price is 7.95, with a decrease of 0.12 - Other apple varieties' prices remain unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01: Today's price is 9658, yesterday's close was 9587, with an increase of 71 - AP05: Today's price is 9200, yesterday's close was 9163, with an increase of 37 - AP10: Today's price is 8174, yesterday's close was 8107, with an increase of 67 [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: Today's value is 458, previous trading - day value was 424, with an increase of 34 - AP05 - AP10: Today's value is 1026, previous trading - day value was 1056, with a decrease of 30 - AP10 - AP01: Today's value is - 1484, previous trading - day value was - 1480, with a decrease of 4 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year, apple production decreased, the proportion of high - quality fruits is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate within a short - term range - Arbitrage: Go long on AP01 and short on AP10 - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the inventory - reduction speed is lower than that of last year - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 2500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71% - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] Market Conditions - The apple market in the producing areas has changed little, cold - storage transactions are stable, mainly low - price goods. Traders are packaging their own high - quality goods and rarely purchasing from outside. Merchants in various producing areas have started to package Spring Festival gift boxes. The market arrivals are stable, and the mainstream prices are stable - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The number of buyers is increasing, and farmers' willingness to sell is rising [7]