Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30, new maintenance devices such as Zhanjiang BASF's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 86.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space for plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On December 30, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. The overall supply of plastics increased with new production capacity coming on - stream, and downstream demand decreased as the agricultural film season ended and terminal construction slowed. The cost - end crude oil price rebounded limitedly, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, with limited upward space [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6436 yuan/ton, the highest was 6486 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 0.09% below the 60 - day moving average. The position increased by 3545 lots to 512784 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 30, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% week - on - week. The agricultural film was gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The packaging film orders also slightly decreased, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fluctuated around 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]
塑料日报：震荡运行-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-30 12:02