螺纹日报：震荡整理-20251230

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current market is in a volatile situation supported by low supply and in the off - season of demand. The supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rise in the past two weeks, and steel mills have the expectation of resuming production in January, which restricts the upside space of prices to some extent. The demand shows off - season characteristics with a decline. Observe whether the winter storage market can start in January. The inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - expectation is loose, but the real - estate regulation restricts the long - term demand space. The recent market has shown continuous volatility after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation, and there is currently a lack of unilateral driving factors [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The position of the main rebar contract increased by 30,014 lots on Tuesday. The trading volume was slightly lower than the previous trading day, with 635,547 lots. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3128 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3148 yuan/ton, and closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.10% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 166 yuan/ton to the spot, which provided some support for the futures price [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply - side: As of the week ending December 25, rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. It was 319,100 tons lower than the same period in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 0.39% lower than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, unchanged from last week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 300 tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons, 12,900 tons lower than last year. The production continued to rise slightly this week, and there was an expectation of steel mill复产, which would weaken the price support to some extent [2]. - Demand - side: The terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials in the country maintaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past five years. As of the week ending December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower than the same period in the Gregorian calendar. There were regional differences in demand, with construction in the north stagnant due to cold weather and stock projects in the south rushing to work. The apparent demand declined due to the off - season, and attention should be paid to whether the winter storage could boost demand in January [2]. - Inventory: As of the week ending December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, de - stocking for 8 consecutive weeks but still 345,100 tons higher than the same period. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons week - on - week with a slowdown in de - stocking, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, up slightly by 5200 tons. The de - stocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience, and the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3]. - Macro - aspect: The Central Economic Conference proposed to use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - expectation was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan pointed out a transformation path for the steel industry, with limited incremental demand but support from the loose cycle [3]. - Cost - side: The futures of iron ore and coking coal stabilized, strengthening the cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory de - stocking, loose policy expectations, large discount on the futures market, and strong iron ore [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpectedly high resumption of steel mill production in January, seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious willingness of traders for winter storage, weak real - estate data, and weakening of coking coal [5].