焦炭日报：短期震荡偏强-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the coke industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of coke is weak, with continuous increase in supply and low - level operation of iron - water production on the demand side. However, short - term anti - involution news boosts market sentiment, and there are still policy expectations at the macro level. Therefore, it is expected that coke will oscillate and be slightly bullish in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of December 26, independent coking enterprises' coke inventory increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 tons, steel mills' coke inventory increased by 1.34% to 642.2 tons, port coke inventory increased by nearly 2%, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 tons to 978.64 tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1] - The terminal demand for steel is weak, mainly for rigid - demand restocking; the profitability of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 0.03 tons to 226.58 tons compared with last week, ending the previous five - consecutive - decline, and decreased by 1.29 tons compared with last year [1] - Steel and coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing upstream coking coal. Independent coking enterprises' inventory increased slightly by 3.43 tons to 1039.72 tons, steel mills' coking coal inventory increased slightly by 1.73 tons to 806.72 tons. While coal mines' coking coal inventory increased by 10.1 tons, port imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 tons. Therefore, the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 tons, reaching a nearly 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2] - The market supervision总局 has deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair - competition governance, strengthening the crackdown on administrative monopolies, and anti - monopoly and anti - unfair - competition law enforcement. Some steel mills in Hebei have lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, and the fourth round of coke price reduction has begun [2] Futures and Spot Market - On the futures side, the 05 coke contract opened at 1680.5, reached a high of 1735, and closed at 1715, with an increase of 198 lots. It is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [3] - In the spot market, the port spot market is stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1450. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, and the inventory at the two ports has increased slightly compared with the previous trading day [4]