纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强-20251230

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the soda ash industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - Soda ash is currently in the inventory digestion phase, and its price may remain oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term. Pay attention to the price trend near the 40 - day moving average and the downstream demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, showing a bullish signal in the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 148,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 38,262 lots. The closing price was up 26 yuan/ton, a 2.19% increase [1] - The spot market was weakly stable and oscillating. Some enterprise device loads were slightly adjusted, and the overall production increased. New orders received by enterprises were average, and downstream demand was general [1] - The basis of North China's heavy soda ash was 87 yuan/ton, with a spot price of 1300 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental data - Supply: As of December 25, domestic soda ash production was 711,800 tons, a 1.32% decrease from the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 81.65%, a 1.09% decrease [2] - Inventory: As of December 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4066 million tons, a 2.22% decrease from last Thursday [2] - Demand: The downstream demand for soda ash was general, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price purchases. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while that for heavy soda ash was weak. There was a possibility of cold - repair for glass production lines at the end of the month, which might lead to weaker demand for heavy soda ash [2] - Profit: As of December 25, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 20.5 yuan/ton, a 50% increase; the ammonia - alkali method's theoretical profit was - 57.4 yuan/ton, a 13.94% increase. The cost support continued to weaken [3] - Import and Export: In November, the domestic soda ash export volume was 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to November increased by 922,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The import volume in November was 25 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to November decreased by 97.76% compared with the same period last year [3] Main logic summary - Although soda ash production has decreased, the overall operating rate is still high, and new production capacity is continuously being put into use. The inventory is still at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening due to the cold - repair of glass production lines [4] - There is some short - term support due to continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and the rebound of coal prices. The government's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has also boosted market confidence [4]