南华期货2026年度工业硅、多晶硅展望：硅途向远，静待春来

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - Industrial Silicon: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - Polysilicon: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - Industrial Silicon: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - Polysilicon: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - First Quarter: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - Second Quarter: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - Third and Fourth Quarters: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - First Quarter: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - Second Quarter: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - Third Quarter: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - Fourth Quarter: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - Cost: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - Supply: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - Import and Export: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - New Capacity in 2026: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - Cost: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - Supply: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - Terminal Demand: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - Component Import and Export: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - Photovoltaic Power Generation: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - Industrial Silicon Profit: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - Polysilicon Profit: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]