原油震荡，化工内部仍分化看待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil fluctuates driven by geopolitics, with high trading difficulty and few participation opportunities. The PX - PTA, a leading chemical variety, may peak and start to correct, and the chemical industry will face a structurally differentiated market in the medium term after the correction [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitics is the main short - term driver. Recent events such as the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, the受阻 of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran increase geopolitical uncertainties, making trading difficult [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Chemicals (1) Asphalt - Logic: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. With the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, there is a risk of raw material supply disruption. It can be pre - arranged before the technical structure's upward trend is broken [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today but failed to break through due to lack of volume. The short - term support below has moved up to 2965. The strategy is to take half - profit on long positions before the holiday, and set the remaining half - position's stop - profit at 2965 [8]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is accumulating, reaching the highest in five years, and the total industrial chain inventory is at a historical high. The demand is weak in the off - season, and there is still pressure of over - inventory in January and February [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today with an unobvious breakthrough and insufficient volume. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to take profit on the remaining half of long positions [10][12]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The spot price of Thai cup lump rubber is firm, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, the downstream tire inventory is over - stocked, and the domestic rubber inventory is accumulating seasonally, reaching a year - on - year high. It still faces great pressure after the short - term rise [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure but should be treated as oscillatory. It oscillated today, and the short - term support is at 15520. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The short - term price of the raw material butadiene is firm due to inventory reduction, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, high - level production of butadiene will lead to high supply pressure later [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today without changing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 11200. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 11200 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions yesterday, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 7260. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 7260, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [20][23]. (6) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 5070. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 5070, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through the short - term pressure at 6315 today, turning the hourly - level structure to long. The short - term support below is at 6255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream MTO is under maintenance. The inventory pressure is improved, but the demand expectation is weak. The overall fundamental driving force is not strong. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through today, making the short - term structure upward again. The short - term support is at 2120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: Although the total PVC inventory is still at a historical high year - on - year, due to large profit losses and low chlor - alkali profits, the PVC production and output have declined for three consecutive weeks. After entering the pattern of both weak supply and demand, the total inventory has also decreased for three consecutive weeks, reducing the supply pressure in the short term. The expectation of spring maintenance in the first quarter and the anti - involution sentiment may drive the market up in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, but the volume was insufficient, and it cannot be confirmed as the end of the correction. The short - term support is at 4670 - 4680. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 4670 - 4680 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants are expanding, and the number of maintenance plans is increasing, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, exceeding the median of the past five years. Two 720,000 - ton production capacity plants in Taiwan stopped production last week, and there is an expectation of improvement in port inventory accumulation [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - line closed at a new high, but the breakthrough was not obvious and the volume was insufficient. The short - term support is temporarily at 3775. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is at 6545. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged, and the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. The medium - term pressure of oversupply still exists, but the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is reduced. It is only suitable for short - position allocation [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, maintaining the short - term upward structure. The short - term support below has moved up to 1170. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit on long positions yesterday [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains unchanged. The supply - demand driving force is still downward without a reversal, but there is little space for chasing short positions. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [44]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, continuing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2190. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 2190 [44].