天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of lithium carbonate has not reversed, and it is advisable to go long at low prices after the price stabilizes and the capital signal recovers. Polysilicon may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon is in a short - term shock pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective [1][8][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the previous trading day [1]. - Core Logic: The price turned to a shock - strengthening pattern, but funds continued to withdraw. The sharp decline yesterday was a normal adjustment. The market has a consistent expectation of increasing demand, and the downstream production schedule in January - February exceeded expectations. In January 2026, the total production schedule of China's lithium - battery market increased by 103% year - on - year [1]. - Technical Analysis: The market was still controlled by bulls, with significant position - reduction at the end of the session. The 5 - minute cycle was green, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 11,820 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go long at low prices. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - Concerns: The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the import volume of lithium concentrates, as well as the results of long - term contract negotiations and downstream demand release [3][4]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous trading day [6]. - Core Logic: Affected by the macro - emotional side, it followed the overall commodity trend. Exchange regulations may lead to reduced or withdrawn funds. It returned to the upper edge of the previous shock range, and the support level was not broken, but liquidity decreased significantly [8]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract reduced positions by 12.86%, and trading volume decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle was red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was weak, with a long - short dividing line at 60,760 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: It may maintain a shock pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Concerns: The recovery of warehouse receipts [10]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous trading day [13]. - Core Logic: Affected by the maintenance of northern large - scale plants on the supply side, it strengthened in a shock. The supply - demand imbalance continued, inventory was at a three - year high, and downstream restocking was limited [13]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest continued to decline. There was an intraday trading opportunity at 9:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle was red - blue - red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 8,715 yuan/ton [13]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is in a short - term shock pattern. Pay attention to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13]. - Concerns: Macro - emotional changes, environmental protection speculation of large - scale plants in winter, industry anti - involution progress, and new warehouse receipt registration [13].