尿素日报：能化走强，尿素冲高回落-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea opened flat and moved higher today, closing up. The spot market continued to decline, but sentiment improved after the futures rebounded. The fundamentals have limited support, and the market will mainly fluctuate at high levels without news or fundamental stimuli [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea opened flat and moved higher, closing up. The spot market continued to decline, but sentiment improved after the futures rebounded. The current daily production is 200,000 tons. There are still plans to shut down and reduce production of gas - fired plants in the southwest in January, but many previously shut - down plants will resume production, so it's hard to have new low daily production data. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China, terminal sales are restricted, and the operating load of compound fertilizer plants continued to decline by 1.62 percentage points. After a meeting last week, key phosphate fertilizer producers and major downstream purchasers reached a consensus on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of phosphate fertilizers, and the winter storage market is operating stably. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operating rate may rise, and the raw material procurement end has resilience. The price of compound fertilizer before the Spring Festival tends to be stable, and the inventory reduction amplitude has increased this period, currently 456,100 tons lower than the same period last year. The energy - chemical sector strengthened today, and urea rebounded but had limited fundamental support, with a slight decline after reaching a high [1]. Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,735 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved higher, closing up. It finally closed at 1,743 yuan/ton, a positive line, with a change of 0.46%. The position volume was 204,038 lots (+9,235 lots). Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 5,151 lots and short positions increased by 9,057 lots. Among them, CITIC Futures had a net long position of +1,222 lots, GF Futures had a net long position of +1,018 lots; Galaxy had a net short position of +1,797 lots, and Yide Futures had a net short position of +2,549 lots. On December 30, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,381, a net increase of 1,631 from the previous trading day [2]. Spot - The spot market continued to decline, but sentiment improved after the futures rebounded. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea plants in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,620 - 1,690 yuan/ton, with Henan plants' prices at the lower end [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation declined while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 53 yuan/ton (- 18 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on December 30, 2025, the national daily urea production was 201,600 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 83.08% [10].