Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Varieties Analysis - Release Date: December 30, 2025 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 30, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum and palladium hit the daily limit down, both with a 13% decline. Shanghai tin dropped over 4%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver nearly 4%, and Shanghai gold over 3%. International copper, Shanghai copper, and the container shipping European line fell over 2%. On the upside, Shanghai nickel and glass rose over 3%, and methanol and soda ash rose over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract rose 0.36%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.03%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract rose 0.59%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract rose 0.24%. In the bond futures market, the 2 - year Treasury bond (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond (T) main contract fell 0.02%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond (TL) main contract rose 0.17% [6][7] - As of 15:24 on December 30, in terms of capital inflows in domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2603 had an inflow of 2.818 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 2.795 billion yuan, and SSE 2603 had an inflow of 1.62 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Shanghai gold 2602 had an outflow of 7.982 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an outflow of 2.928 billion yuan, and Shanghai copper 2602 had an outflow of 1.556 billion yuan [7] 2. Commodity - Specific Analysis 2.1 Copper - Market Trend: Shanghai copper opened lower and closed lower on the day. The zero - priced long - term concentrate processing fee for 2026 boosted market sentiment, leading to consecutive days of rising copper prices. However, due to factors such as squeezed copper product profits, decreased capacity utilization, and weak downstream demand, the upward drive was affected. But the strong upward trend of copper remained unchanged [9] - Supply and Demand: SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in December would increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month, a 5.96% increase, and a 6.69% year - on - year increase. The continuous accumulation of cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated a decline in downstream purchasing power [9] 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower on the day. Although the downstream energy - storage battery market continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter weakened the support for lithium carbonate prices [11] - Supply and Demand: SMM data showed that the output of lithium carbonate increased by about 150 tons last week to 22,161 tons. The production of lithium extraction from salt lakes continued to decline. The downstream demand was expected to weaken as the terminal peak season was coming to an end, and the purchase tax would be halved starting next year [11] 2.3 Crude Oil - Market Trend: OPEC+ countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, due to the end of the demand peak season, the continuous increase in US oil inventories, and the high - level production of US crude oil, the crude oil market remained in a state of supply surplus. It was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13] 2.4 Asphalt - Market Trend: The supply of asphalt was expected to decrease as some refineries planned to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north was gradually ending, but the winter storage demand continued to be released. The price of asphalt in Shandong rose slightly, and it was expected that the asphalt futures price would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14] - Supply and Demand: Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 was expected to be 2 million tons, a 7.3% month - on - month decrease. The downstream construction rate mostly declined, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries increased slightly [14] 2.5 PP (Polypropylene) - Market Trend: The downstream demand for PP was in the late peak season, with orders continuing to decline. Although the overall sentiment of bulk commodities was boosted, the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It was expected that the upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [16] - Supply and Demand: As of the week of December 26, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. The construction rate of PP enterprises decreased to about 82%, and the petrochemical inventory was at a relatively high level [16] 2.6 Plastic - Market Trend: The plastic market was affected by factors such as new production capacity and the end of the peak season for agricultural films. Although the overall sentiment of bulk commodities was positive, the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It was expected that the upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17][18] - Supply and Demand: As of the week of December 26, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. New production capacity was put into operation, and the construction rate decreased slightly. The demand for agricultural films decreased, and the downstream purchasing willingness was weak [17] 2.7 PVC - Market Trend: The supply of PVC decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The export situation was not optimistic, and the social inventory was still high. It was expected that PVC would fluctuate. The real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, and improvement required time [19] - Supply and Demand: The PVC construction rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the export orders decreased slightly [19] 2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher on the day. Although the downstream demand was weak, the market was affected by factors such as the expected production cut of mines and the progress of winter storage. It was expected to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to frequent capital rotation [20][21] - Supply and Demand: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased by 2.41% month - on - month. The import of coal increased, and the total inventory increased by 54,600 tons. The profit of coke enterprises decreased, and the fourth round of price cuts was initiated [21] 2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Urea opened flat and closed higher on the day. Although the spot market continued to decline, the futures market rebounded, and the sentiment improved. There was limited fundamental support, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [22] - Supply and Demand: The current daily output of urea was 200,000 tons. There were plans for production cuts in the southwest in January, but also plans for the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices. The downstream compound fertilizer factory's construction rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [22]
每日核心期货品种分析-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-30 12:39