原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, with expectations of weak and volatile crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries with additional voluntary production cuts reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, along with an increase in refined oil inventories, and the overall oil product inventories continue to rise [1]. - U.S. crude oil production has continued to decline slightly but remains near the historical high. After the U.S. - Ukraine talks, Trump said that significant progress has been made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with discussions covering nearly 95% of key issues [1]. - European refined oil crack spreads have stabilized after a continuous decline from the high level. The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until July 31, 2026. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to concerns about export disruptions in Venezuela [1]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and exports in the Middle East have risen [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2602 contract, rose 0.11% to 436.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 439.7 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 1796 to 30384 lots [2]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the morning of December 30, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending December 19, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.432 million barrels, and were 3.43% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.862 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.118 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, less than the expected increase of 440,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels [1][3]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - U.S. crude oil production for the week ending December 19 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.825 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [1][4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.539 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. Among them, weekly gasoline demand decreased by 1.50% to 8.942 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.701 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%. Weekly diesel demand increased by 9.77% to 4.156 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.883 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.44%. The single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 1.28% month - on - month, mainly driven by a significant decline in gasoline and propane [4].