PVC日报：震荡运行-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report predicts that PVC will fluctuate. Although the anti - "involution" sentiment in the commodity market is rising, the current decline in PVC production is limited, and it is the traditional demand off - season in December. After the spot price rises, the market transaction is weak. With high inventory and limited demand, PVC is expected to move in a volatile manner [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the downstream product orders are poor. In terms of exports, PVC is sold at a lower price, and last week's export orders decreased slightly. The prices in the Indian market are low, and the demand is limited. The CFR in January from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan remained flat in China, but decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton in India and Southeast Asia respectively. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to November 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased, but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production. The anti - "involution" sentiment in the commodity market is rising, and the comprehensive profit margin of chlor - alkali has decreased, but the current decline in production is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,748 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,810 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.15%. The position volume decreased by 22,446 lots to 946,761 lots [2] Basis - On December 30, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,810 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 310 yuan/ton, weakening by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by plants such as Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%, and the operating rate continued to decline, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year for Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year for Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year for Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year for Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] Demand - The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the new construction area of residential housing decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%; the completion area of residential housing decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of December 21, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost the sales of commercial housing [5] Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 1.0611 million tons, an increase of 31.92% compared with the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high [6]