年末供应收缩叠加需求回暖，价格底部区间逐步确认

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply contraction at the end of the year, combined with a recovery in demand, is gradually confirming the price bottom range [1] - The report highlights that the thermal coal price continues to decline but at a reduced rate, with pessimistic sentiment gradually being released. After the New Year, low temperatures in the central and eastern regions are expected to boost heating demand, alongside supply contraction and policy support expectations, leading to a potential stabilization of coal prices [8][9] - Coking coal prices are stable with support, despite weak short-term demand. The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in prices, supported by low inventory levels and supply contraction, with winter storage replenishment expected to start after the New Year [21][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market showed a significant increase with an average daily trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment. The coal sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [4][6][36] - The coal sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 0.68%, closing at 2772.29 points, with notable fluctuations among individual coal companies [4][6] Thermal Coal - The report notes a continued decline in thermal coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal reported at 672 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton week-on-week. The supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production limits, while demand is showing marginal improvement [8][9][10] - The report indicates that the utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines has dropped to 86.4%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [8] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with premium coal types showing notable price increases. The report anticipates that despite weak short-term demand, the combination of low inventory levels and supply contraction will support prices [21][22] - The average price for main coking coal at the port is reported at 1740 yuan/ton, reflecting a recovery trend [23] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased, with an average of 67 vessels per day, indicating a rise in shipping activity. Shipping prices showed differentiated changes across routes [30][31] Industry News - Significant breakthroughs in coal exploration in Shandong province were reported, with over 10 billion tons of coal discovered. This is part of a broader initiative to enhance geological technology and promote high-quality development in the coal sector [33] - The report also highlights the upcoming national coal production and transportation coordination conference aimed at improving efficiency in coal supply chains [33]