2026年财政可能有两个超预期

Group 1: Fiscal Outlook for 2026 - Despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may exceed expectations due to rising prices and unspent fiscal resources from 2025[3] - A 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion CNY in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio[3] - Unspent fiscal resources from 2025 are expected to exceed 500 billion CNY, contributing to a potential increase in public budget spending growth by about 2.6 percentage points[3] Group 2: Historical Context and Mechanisms - Historical data shows instances where the deficit ratio decreased while spending growth increased, notably in 2021-2022 and 2016-2018[8] - The increase in fiscal spending can be attributed to revenue growth, deficit increases, and the utilization of unspent funds from previous years[11] - In 2025, fiscal deposits increased by 2.04 trillion CNY, the highest level for the same period historically, indicating a significant fiscal surplus[33] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Changes in the real estate and land markets could significantly impact fiscal revenues and expenditures[38] - The estimated impact of rising prices on fiscal revenue is based on certain assumptions, which carry inherent risks[38] - Unexpected spending in December could reduce the anticipated fiscal surplus, affecting the overall fiscal outlook[38]