宏观经济点评：人民币汇率：破7或可持续，但升值节奏或较平缓

Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has appreciated since November, with both onshore and offshore rates breaking 7 by December 30, 2025[3] - From November 29 to December 29, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated approximately 1.5% and 1.75% respectively, while the USD index fell about 1.74%[4] - The RMB is expected to maintain its position above 7, but the pace of appreciation may be gradual due to various economic factors[6] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - A weaker USD is a key catalyst for RMB appreciation, with the USD index expected to remain weak in the short term[6] - China's exports showed resilience in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in November, contributing to a cumulative trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months[5] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US is expected to influence capital flows positively, supporting RMB stability[7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The RMB's appreciation is likely to be a slow and oscillating process, with the potential for limited upward movement in the short term[8] - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the US economy and escalations in US tariff policies[8] - The overall outlook for the RMB remains positive, supported by stable economic relations between China and the US following recent diplomatic talks[7]