Soochow Securities·2025-12-30 13:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 6.43%, ranking first among all primary industries, with industrial metals rising by 7.07% and precious metals by 4.06% [1][13]. - The market is currently characterized by low liquidity due to the Christmas holiday, leading to a lack of effective guidance and a reliance on momentum trading [1][25]. - Investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks as liquidity returns and adjustments in commodity indices occur in early January [1][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 4.54 percentage points [13]. - The industrial metals sector saw significant gains, with copper prices reaching 98,720 CNY/ton, up 5.95% week-on-week, and aluminum prices at 22,405 CNY/ton, up 0.99% [2][3]. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper closed at 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% week-on-week. The TC price for imported copper ore fell to -43.2 USD/ton, indicating a significant drop from previous benchmarks [2][29]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum prices increased to 2,957 USD/ton, up 1.76% week-on-week, with domestic production capacity rising to 44.245 million tons [3][34]. - Zinc: LME zinc prices rose to 3,087 USD/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week, while SHFE zinc prices increased to 23,170 CNY/ton, up 0.46% [39]. - Tin: LME tin prices reached 42,490 USD/ton, up 0.51% week-on-week, with supply gradually increasing as production resumes in Myanmar [45]. Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at 4,562.00 USD/oz, up 4.54% week-on-week, while SHFE gold reached 1,016.30 CNY/g, up 3.71% [48][49]. - Silver: COMEX silver surged by 21.71% week-on-week, closing at 79.68 USD/oz, with SHFE silver up 19.14% to 18,319.00 CNY/ton [48][49]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories on LME decreased by 2.10% to 15.70 million tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 16.59% to 11.17 million tons [30]. - Aluminum inventories on LME rose by 0.28% to 52.11 million tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 6.64% to 12.85 million tons [34]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of low liquidity and mixed economic data on market trends, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant regarding potential market corrections in the coming weeks [1][48].