互联网行业2026年投资策略：AI、游戏和电商出海、外卖边际缓和是关键变量

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI, gaming, and e-commerce expansion as key growth drivers for the internet industry in 2026, while also noting that the marginal easing of food delivery services will be a critical variable [1][30] - The historical performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is heavily influenced by US dollar liquidity and macroeconomic factors, with a tendency for weak performance in Q4 and subsequent recovery in Q1/Q2 of the following year [4][10] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Alibaba is highlighted as a full-stack AI self-research company, with a focus on increasing market share of its Qianwen model globally, driving growth in cloud services through open-source community engagement, and enhancing profitability through self-developed chips [4][30] - Tencent's advertising business is expected to maintain rapid growth due to AI empowerment, while overseas gaming is identified as a significant growth area, with notable acceleration in 2025 [4][30] - Meituan's food delivery competition in 2025 is noted for its impact on cash flow and profitability, with a focus on monitoring changes in competitive dynamics and potential recovery in market share [4][30] - Baidu's announcement of the Kunlun chip IPO is seen as a significant narrative under the AI backdrop, with attention on the progress of its autonomous driving business [4][30] - Kuaishou is recognized as a rare AI video export player, with a focus on leveraging domestic models to capture more global market share [4][30] Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The report projects that the domestic economic growth rate will marginally slow down in 2026, with GDP growth expected to be 4.9% [20][21] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently trading at a PE ratio of 23x, indicating a significant valuation gap compared to the Nasdaq, which is at 41x [24][30] - The report notes that the majority of stock price increases in 2025 were driven by PE expansion, particularly for Alibaba, which saw a 77% increase primarily due to valuation uplift [12][30]