行业景气度超预期,AI与国产化双主线凸显
Datong Securities·2025-12-30 14:05

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural prosperity, with strong demand for mature processes and specialty technologies. Domestic wafer manufacturing leaders, represented by SMIC, are operating at full capacity and have implemented price increases, indicating robust performance in a tight supply-demand environment [3][34] - The demand for AI computing continues to drive upgrades in high-end storage, with HBM prices rising and major players competing for next-generation technologies, highlighting a high prosperity trend in advanced storage and packaging testing [4][36] - The overall focus should be on domestic wafer manufacturing leaders and their upstream and downstream supply chains, as well as the AI-driven high-end hardware industry chain, which are currently key areas of interest [4][36] Industry Data Tracking Semiconductor Industry - In October 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, while China's semiconductor sales were $19.5 billion, up 18.5% year-on-year, indicating sustained strong demand in the semiconductor sector [24][29] - The domestic semiconductor equipment demand remains strong as the push for domestic substitution continues [24] Storage Chip Industry - Recent trends show a strong upward movement in DRAM prices, reflecting robust demand for high-performance memory from AI servers and next-generation PCs. NAND Flash prices are stable, with a gradual increase, while the overall storage chip industry is entering a new prosperity cycle [29][33] Consumer Electronics - The smartphone market is increasingly reliant on technological innovation and stimulus policies, with a significant increase in smartphone shipments in October 2025, driven by promotional events and new product launches [18][19]