热卷日报：震荡整理-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The hot - rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Although the output of hot - rolled coil rebounded last week but is at a relatively low level, there is still room for output to rise. The recovery of apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to be destocked, but the total amount is still at a high level. With the expectation of a relatively loose macro - environment, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom - bust line. The winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity also need to be monitored. It is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation, and there are no unilateral driving factors for now [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 7,022 lots, with a trading volume of 311,439 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,278 yuan, the high was 3,298 yuan, and it closed at 3,282 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% [1]. - Spot Price: The price of hot - rolled coil in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The spot - futures basis was 8 yuan, close to par [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.63 million tons to 293.54 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 13.60 million tons year - on - year. The output rebounded after a sharp decline last week, currently near the lowest level of the year and at a near - four - year low, which enhances price support. The production cut was mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill maintenance, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off - season [4]. - Demand: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.76 million tons to 307.04 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 2.29 million tons year - on - year. The apparent demand recovered this week, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs attention [4]. - Inventory: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 13.50 million tons week - on - week to 377.22 million tons (social inventory decreased by 10.6 million tons, steel mill inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, and the destocking accelerated, indicating the demand's resilience in late December, probably due to enterprises' export rush. However, the total inventory is at a near - four - year high, and the subsequent destocking speed needs attention [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is positive for prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. - External Macro: In the US, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: The supply - side output has decreased significantly, there is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - Bearish Factors: The resumption of steel mill production in January may exceed expectations, the demand will seasonally weaken, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation will suppress prices [6].