2025年12月债市回顾及2026年1月展望：把握年初利率季节性窗口，顺势布局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, bond market yields oscillated and then trended upward, with a term - structure differentiation. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2BP, and the 1 - year Treasury yield fell 5BP. The term spread widened by 7BP to 51BP [1][8]. - In January 2026, focus on the 2025 GDP performance and the possibility of a Q1 economic start, the potentially active front - loading of supply, the possibility of central bank reserve requirement ratio cuts and flexible and cautious interest rate cuts, and the opening of the seasonal interest rate downward window and institutional net - increase support for the start - of - the - year [4][76]. - The bond market interest rate is expected to oscillate downward in January. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to enter the market when the interest rate oscillates downward, and also pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of ultra - long bonds [5][77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review - In December, affected by factors such as the central bank's precise liquidity care, loose funds, and repeated disturbances of interest rate cut expectations, the bond market yield oscillated and then trended upward. There was term - structure differentiation, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2BP and the 1 - year Treasury yield falling 5BP. The term spread widened to 51BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds in December was overall bull - steep, with the decline of the medium - and short - term generally larger. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds rose overall [9]. - Overseas, the US inflation repair was less than expected. The Fed cut interest rates in December, but there were still large internal differences. The US bond yield trended upward, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly widened. The US dollar against the RMB exchange rate declined [10]. - Weekly, the bond market yield first rose and then fell in the first week, declined overall in the second week, continued to decline in the third week, and oscillated and rebounded in the fourth week [17]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 Bond Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Pay attention to the improvement of inflation (CPI's moderate recovery and PPI's continuous positive month - on - month growth), the resilience of exports under high - base effects and its support for PMI, the decline of real estate supply and demand data, and the 2025 GDP growth rate and the possibility of a 2026 economic start. If the weak fundamental recovery continues, the upward market expectations may reverse [2][21]. - Supply: The 2025 deficit rate may remain at 4%, with the quotas of Treasury bonds and special bonds increasing. It is estimated that the net supply of government bonds in January will be about 1.24 trillion yuan, mainly due to more special bond issuances. The overall supply pressure has increased compared with the same period in 2025 [2][38]. - Funds: At the end of the year, the central bank clearly cared about cross - year liquidity, and the funds were loose recently. Although the liquidity may be under pressure due to factors such as the front - loading of government bond issuance and a large certificate of deposit maturity scale, it is expected that the bond market funds in January will fluctuate in a balanced manner, and the interest rate is likely to decline seasonally after the Gregorian New Year. Pay attention to the possibility of the central bank increasing Treasury bond purchases [3][51]. - Policy: The December economic meeting pointed out the policy direction for 2026. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and more flexible and cautious interest rate cuts are likely to be implemented in the first quarter to cooperate with fiscal efforts. More flexible tools can be expected next year [3][61]. - Institutional Behavior: In December, various institutional allocation portfolios continued to increase holdings but slightly converged, and trading portfolios turned to small - scale net purchases. In January, focus on the opening of the traditional interest rate downward window, the possibility of allocation forces increasing positions before the Spring Festival, the possibility of trading portfolios entering the market flexibly, and the opportunity of narrowing the spread of ultra - long bonds [3][65]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy - In January, focus on the 2025 GDP performance and the Q1 economic start, the potentially active front - loading of supply, the possibility of central bank reserve requirement ratio cuts and flexible and cautious interest rate cuts, and the opening of the seasonal interest rate downward window and institutional net - increase support for the start - of - the - year [4][76]. - In terms of interest rates, the funds in January are likely to return to a balanced state after the cross - year under the central bank's care. There is room for the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to enter the market when the interest rate oscillates downward. For the short - end, the short - end interest rate has limited odds for short - term returns. For the long - end, the current 1.85% has reappeared allocation value. For ultra - long bonds, pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread if the market conditions are favorable [5][77]. 3.3 January Important Economic Calendar The report provides the expected values of important economic indicators to be announced in January, including PPI, CPI, M2, new RMB loans, and other data [80].