宏观张德礼：大国博弈，科技领航

Core Insights - The report projects a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, emphasizing a coordinated approach to promote consumption and expand investment to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4] - China's exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth of 3.4% in 2026, supported by factors such as re-export trade and the gradual impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [3][4] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover slightly from 1% in 2025 to around 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and continued policy support for advanced manufacturing [4] Economic Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to see a decline in sales area by approximately 5% in 2026, but the direct drag on the economy from real estate investment is expected to lessen, with a projected decline of around 11% compared to 16% in 2025 [5] - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial pathway to achieve the 5% GDP growth target, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [5][6] - Consumer sentiment is expected to recover gradually, with government support for consumption projected to remain at least at the 300 billion level seen in 2025 [5][6] Investment and Policy - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to rebound from a decline of about 1% in 2025 to an increase of 8% in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [6] - The report indicates a moderate recovery in consumer prices, with PPI expected to improve from -2.6% in 2025 to -1.2% in 2026, and CPI from 0.0% to 0.5% [6] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain supportive, with a broad deficit expected to increase from approximately 11.86 trillion to 12.45 trillion, reflecting a slight rise in the broad deficit ratio [7][8]