Changjiang Securities·2025-12-31 00:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Insights - The heavy truck industry continues to show high prosperity, driven by policies encouraging vehicle replacement and increasing demand for new energy vehicles [10][51] - The report highlights three main drivers of growth: low oil and gas price differentials, a surge in new energy vehicle sales due to year-end purchasing incentives, and strong export demand, particularly from Africa [30][48][71] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In November 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.3% and a month-on-month increase of 6.6% [10] - Heavy truck registration sales were 77,000 units, up 34.4% year-on-year and 9.4% month-on-month [10] - Heavy truck exports totaled 34,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.3% [10] Key Drivers - Oil and Gas Price Differential: The oil and gas price differential remains low, with liquefied natural gas priced at 4,213.7 RMB/ton and diesel at 6,883.8 RMB/ton, resulting in a differential of 2,670 RMB/ton [33] - New Energy Vehicle Surge: The new energy heavy truck registration reached 28,000 units in November 2025, marking a 192.6% increase year-on-year and a 40.8% increase month-on-month [51] - Export Demand: Heavy truck exports to Africa reached 14,111 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 99.7% [76] Market Segmentation - By Purpose: In November 2025, logistics vehicle registration was 60,000 units, up 39.7% year-on-year, while engineering vehicle registration was 17,000 units, up 18.6% year-on-year [13][23] - By Energy Type: Natural gas heavy truck registrations were 19,000 units, up 70.7% year-on-year, while new energy heavy trucks accounted for 28,000 units, with a penetration rate of 36.4% [51][38] Company Performance - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in November 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor, with sales of 29,000, 24,000, and 17,000 units respectively [13][27] - The market shares for these companies were 25.5%, 21.0%, and 15.2%, showing varying changes compared to the previous year [27] Inventory Trends - Both enterprises and channels are increasing inventory levels, with a slight rise in inventory by 0.1 thousand units for enterprises and 0.3 thousand units for channels in November 2025 [14]