万联晨会-20251231

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing flat, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,424.47 billion yuan. The leading sectors included oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals, while retail, real estate, and public utilities lagged behind [2][8] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increase by 1.74%. In contrast, major U.S. indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.2%, S&P 500 down by 0.14%, and Nasdaq down by 0.24% [2][8] Important News - The "Two New" policy for 2026 was released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, outlining support for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement. A total of 625 billion yuan in special bonds will be allocated for this initiative, with a subsidy rate of 15% for certain household appliances and a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item [3][9] - Changes to the value-added tax policy for personal housing sales were announced, effective January 1, 2026. Homes sold within two years will incur a 3% VAT, while those sold after two years will be exempt from VAT [3][9] Market Analysis - The A-share market saw active trading in the sci-tech sector, with significant interest in commercial aerospace, terahertz technology, and controllable nuclear fusion. The market liquidity decreased in December, influenced by year-end fund recovery and reduced risk appetite among investors. However, a recovery in investor confidence was noted in the latter half of December due to positive signals from national economic meetings [10][11] - The overall economic environment remains stable, with improvements in fixed asset investment growth and a rebound in import and export growth rates. The CPI has shown an expanding year-on-year increase, while the decline in PPI has narrowed. The macroeconomic policies are expected to continue supporting economic stabilization and growth [12]