申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251231
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-31 00:45

Group 1: China Ping An (601318) - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment, with China Ping An demonstrating significant advantages in managing liability costs and outperforming peers in interest spread performance. The stabilization of long-term interest rates and the ongoing entry of insurance funds into the market indicate a clear trend of asset improvement, suggesting that the insurance sector will benefit from this reassessment [3][13]. - Investment analysis suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts, maintaining a "buy" rating. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 146.8 billion, 161.2 billion, and 188 billion RMB, respectively, with a target price of 93.8 RMB per share, corresponding to a P/EV of 0.99x for 2026 [3][13]. - The company has a high dividend yield, with a focus on shareholder returns, and is expected to see a recovery in OPAT growth in 2026. The public fund's holding in China Ping An is below the weight of the CSI 300, indicating potential for increased capital inflow [3][13]. Group 2: 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555) - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities through strategic transformations over the years, maintaining a stable management team and timely adjustments to its systems. The gaming pipeline is expected to validate its product offerings in 2025 [12][15]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 16.2 billion, 18.6 billion, and 20.9 billion RMB, with net profit estimates of 3.22 billion, 3.54 billion, and 3.81 billion RMB, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE of 15/14x for 2026-2027 [12][15]. - The company is actively integrating AI into its production and content innovation, with a focus on expanding its product pipeline in the gaming sector, particularly in the SLG and casual gaming markets [12][15]. Group 3: Baidu Group (09888) - Baidu is advancing its AI stack, with significant growth in its intelligent cloud business. The company has released new AI chips and models, positioning itself as a leader in the AI large model solution market [14][15]. - Revenue projections for Baidu from 2025 to 2027 are set at 128.5 billion, 133.1 billion, and 141 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, 4%, and 6%. The target valuation for the group is 430.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 172.54 HKD per share [14][15]. - The company is also seeing substantial growth in its autonomous driving segment, with a significant increase in order volume and profitability, indicating a strong market position in the next-generation mobility space [14][15]. Group 4: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector has experienced significant adjustments, with a focus on repairing household balance sheets as a key to recovery. The government is expected to introduce further supportive policies to stabilize the market [18][22]. - The recent reduction in the value-added tax for housing sales is aimed at lowering transaction costs for sellers, which may help restore the transaction chain, although the overall impact on demand remains limited [18][20]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on commercial real estate and high-quality housing companies, with expectations of value reassessment in the sector as supportive policies are anticipated [18][22]. Group 5: Electric Vehicle Industry - The continuation of subsidies for electric vehicles in 2026 is expected to enhance the penetration rate of electric vehicles, with specific measures aimed at promoting the replacement of old vehicles and supporting the electrification of public transport [24][25]. - The policy changes reflect a commitment to boosting consumer demand for electric vehicles, with expectations of strong sales growth in the coming year [24][25]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in battery manufacturers and material suppliers, with a focus on the long-term growth potential of the electric vehicle market [24][25].