聚烯烃2026年度报告：产能压力不减投产前底后高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry will face continuous capacity pressure in 2026, with a pattern of "low in the first half and high in the second half" for capacity commissioning. The overall price is expected to be weak, with a "high in the first half and low in the second half" rhythm [4][5]. - The key factors affecting the market include capacity commissioning progress, plant operating rates, and imports and exports [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price, Basis, and Calendar Spread: In 2025, polyolefin prices showed different trends in each quarter. The first - quarter was relatively stable, the second - quarter was affected by macro - events and showed wide - range fluctuations, the third - quarter was in a state of oscillation, and the fourth - quarter experienced a significant decline. The basis and calendar spreads of PP and L also had corresponding changes, mainly affected by factors such as capacity commissioning, demand, and trade conflicts [3][9][10]. - Disk Spread Review: The L - PP spread showed a trend of first declining and then recovering. The core reason was the different supply pressures of PP and the demand performance of L [34]. - Disk Profit: The methanol price showed a downward trend, and the MTO disk profit first improved and then deteriorated. The production profit of polyolefins was generally better than that of the previous year, but the PE profit weakened significantly at the end of the year [42][95]. 3.2 Capacity Commissioning is the Main Theme - Domestic Capacity Commissioning: Both PP and PE are in the capacity commissioning cycle. From 2026 - 2030, the planned new capacity of PP will exceed 20 million tons, and that of PE will exceed 20 million tons. The commissioning rhythm in 2026 is "low in the first half and high in the second half" [64][86]. - Foreign Capacity Commissioning: In 2025, the overseas capacity commissioning of PE was about 2.5 million tons, and there are many commissioning plans in 2026, but the actual implementation may fall short of expectations. The overseas capacity commissioning pressure of PP is relatively small [84][87]. - Production - end Profit: The cost side was differentiated, and the production profit was generally better than that of the previous year, especially for the coal - based production. However, the PE profit weakened significantly at the end of the year [95]. - Output Surge: In 2025, the output of both PP and PE increased significantly. The expected annual output of PP is 40.3053 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.96%. The expected annual output of PE is 33.1308 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.69% [138][141]. - Imports and Exports: For PP, the import and export pattern reversed in 2025, with a significant decrease in net imports. For PE, the import pressure remained high, and the import volume was still large [145][164]. 3.3 Demand Side - PP Demand: The demand for PP was high in the first half and low in the second half. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered rapidly, but from the second quarter, the demand gradually weakened, mainly affected by export shocks and the slowdown of domestic economic demand [185]. - PE Demand: The demand for PE was relatively rigid, with obvious seasonality. The demand was strong during the peak seasons of mulch film and greenhouse film, but faced pressure during the off - seasons [193]. 3.4 Inventory - PP Inventory: The PP inventory remained at a high level throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased seasonally, and then decreased during the peak demand season in March. From the second quarter, the inventory basically remained at a high level in previous years [213]. - PE Inventory: At the end of 2024, the LLDPE inventory was low. After the Spring Festival, the inventory was tight due to the peak demand season of agricultural films, and then gradually eased [225]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - PP Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In 2026, the supply growth rate of PP will slow down, but the demand still needs to reach a high level to achieve supply - demand balance. The supply - demand pressure is still large, and the pressure in the first half of the year is less than that in the second half [237][240]. - PE Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In 2026, both the supply and demand of PE will slow down, and the inventory accumulation pattern will continue. Attention should be paid to the commissioning rhythm and the realization of peak demand seasons. The demand for PE is more resilient than that for PP [249][250].