原油上行走势，植物油持续反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products having different price trends and influencing factors [1][7]. - The oil market is affected by factors such as international crude oil prices, South American soybean production expectations, and Malaysian palm oil production and exports, with short - term rebounds and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. - The protein meal market is under inventory pressure, with double meal showing narrow - range oscillations [8]. - The corn and starch market is in a state of tight balance, with prices oscillating within a range [10][11]. - The pig market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term oscillations and long - term supply pressure expected to gradually ease [12]. - The natural rubber market has bullish sentiment, with rubber prices rebounding from low levels, and short - term bullishness is expected [14]. - The synthetic rubber market has a relatively certain improvement in the supply - demand pattern, with short - term upward pressure and medium - term oscillatory strength [16]. - The cotton market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, with a bullish view in the short term [16]. - The sugar market is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, with a downward driving force for sugar prices [18]. - The pulp market is expected to be oscillatory and strong, with bullish factors lifting the bottom and bearish factors mainly in the long - term price transmission [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the short term, with paper mills' price increases boosting market sentiment [20][21]. - The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations and marginal improvement in fundamentals [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds - Viewpoint: Crude oil is on an upward trend, and vegetable oils continue to rebound. Domestic oil trends are oscillatory and strong, with palm oil showing a more obvious upward trend [1][7]. - Logic: Internationally, crude oil prices are rising, increasing the attractiveness of palm oil as biodiesel. South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's soybean planting almost completed and Argentina's planting over half - done. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestically, soybean supply is relatively sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period with improved export expectations, and palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and short - term price - holding sentiment among traders is strong, but global rapeseed production is high, and prices are difficult to rise in the long term [1][7]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: Inventory pressure remains high, and double meal shows narrow - range oscillations [8]. - Logic: Internationally, US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and South American soybean production prospects are optimistic. Domestically, domestic soybeans are being continuously auctioned, and downstream purchase sentiment has declined after replenishment. Soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream consumption is not booming. Imported soybean purchase volume has changed in different quarters, and there are concerns about the extension of the inspection period for Australian imports, making rapeseed meal perform stronger than soybean meal [8]. - Outlook: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: There is a differentiation between North China and Northeast China, and futures prices rise and then fall [10][11]. - Logic: As the delivery approaches, the futures market follows the logic of price convergence with the spot market. In the upstream, snow in Northeast China has affected the grain supply rhythm, and in North China, the improvement of local corn quality has diverted some demand for Northeast corn. In the downstream, after continuous replenishment, downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory, and the market is in a state of tight balance [11]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain sales progress, and downstream profit conditions [12]. 3.4 Pigs - Viewpoint: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreases, and pig prices rebound [12]. - Logic: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreased in mid - December and rebounded in late December, with a decrease in supply at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the demand for stocking has increased, but the pig weight is still high [12]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate. The near - term contracts are expected to operate weakly, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: Bullish sentiment remains, and rubber prices rebound from low levels [14]. - Logic: After a slight decline due to commodity adjustments, rubber prices rebounded. The short - term upward space may be further expanded if there is continuous position - increasing or strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but there is a certain downward pressure. The demand side is weak after the rapid price increase [14]. - Outlook: Fundamentals have limited variables, but market sentiment is strong, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The market shows a strong oscillatory trend [16]. - Logic: The market's expectation of marginal improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming a consensus. The absolute price of the BR contract is relatively low. The butadiene market price was firm last week, and the downstream synthetic rubber market is strong, driving the butadiene market atmosphere [16]. - Outlook: The improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is relatively certain, but there is short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the medium term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: The upward trend continues [16]. - Logic: Recently, Zhengzhou cotton has risen strongly. Fundamentally, the new cotton listing progress is fast from September to December, but the inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, and the apparent demand has increased year - on - year. Policy - wise, there are plans to reduce cotton planting in Xinjiang next year, which boosts market sentiment. In the long term, the domestic cotton supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise [16]. - Outlook: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, and the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [16]. 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: There is a slight rebound, but prices are still under pressure [18]. - Logic: Globally, the sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, with Brazil, Thailand, and India all increasing production. In the domestic new crushing season, production is also increasing, and the spot pressure is increasing. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract has rebounded technically but is still in a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [18]. - Outlook: It is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18]. 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot market is dull, and futures prices oscillate repeatedly [19]. - Logic: Futures prices rebounded yesterday, and the spot market is calm. The market is affected by the financial market atmosphere. Fundamentally, there are bullish factors such as the increase in broad - leaf pulp prices, the supply reduction expectation due to pulp mill shutdowns, and the high actual demand. There are also bearish factors such as difficulties in cost transmission for downstream paper products, seasonal decline in demand, and high hedging pressure on traders [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong. Bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains [19]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - Viewpoint: The spot price is stable, and the market shows a strong trend [20]. - Logic: The double - gum paper market is operating stably, with limited production changes in the industry. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market sentiment is boosted by paper mills' price increases. The market is under the dual pressure of high costs and weak demand, but paper mills have a strong demand for price increases [20]. - Outlook: Paper mills' price increases boost market sentiment, and the paper price is expected to bottom out and be oscillatory and strong in the short term [21]. 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - Logic: The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with stable trading. The external market provides support for the futures price. In the short term, there is a small space for processing plants to replenish inventory, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the first quarter. In the medium term, the 03 contract has certain trading points [22]. - Outlook: Fundamentals are improving marginally, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [22].