节前资金谨慎，新能源金属宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the holiday, funds are cautious, and new energy metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate remains tight, and the risk of supply disruptions has increased. The supply - demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon is loosening, but the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform has raised the expectation of supply contraction. In the short - to - medium term, funds are taking profits before the holiday, causing wide - range fluctuations in new energy metals like lithium carbonate. However, concerns about supply disruptions still support prices. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is increasing, but demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Supply - demand drivers are weak, and the silicon price fluctuates with market sentiment. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7] - Information Analysis: As of December 30, the spot prices of oxygen - passivated 553 and 421 in East China were 9,250 yuan/ton and 9,650 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The latest domestic inventory was 456,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. As of November 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,888 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 22GW, a month - on - month increase of 75% and a year - on - year decrease of 12% [7] - Main Logic: The supply in the north is subject to potential changes, and the demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak. Although the industry inventory has decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, but the downstream demand has also weakened, and the industrial silicon will still accumulate inventory in December and early next year, with weak fundamentals. The price is expected to oscillate due to the current coal price and market sentiment [7][8] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Strong expectations vs. weak reality, and the polysilicon price continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation with an upward bias" [8] - Information Analysis: As of the week of December 30, the transaction price range of N - type re - feed material was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. In November, the export volume of polysilicon was about 3,230 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. A polysilicon platform company was registered, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures [8] - Main Logic: The establishment of the polysilicon platform company has raised the expectation of polysilicon storage, but the willingness to reduce positions at the end of the year is strong, resulting in high price volatility. The production in the southwest has decreased during the dry season, and in the long - term, the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. The weak reality of the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom. The price is expected to be oscillatory with an upward bias in the short term [9][10] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The sentiment has eased, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating upwards. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation with an upward bias" [11][12] - Information Analysis: On December 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% compared to the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 252 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,300 lots. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the equipment update and trade - in policy, which includes support for automobile scrap and replacement [11] - Main Logic: The current demand for lithium carbonate has weakened marginally, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. The market sentiment has a significant impact on the price. The maintenance of several leading cathode material factories in January will lead to weaker demand, but the raw material inventory of the cathode link has decreased significantly. Overall, the price is expected to be oscillatory with an upward bias in the short term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12] 3.2行情监测 - The specific content of this section in the text only lists the names of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, without specific monitoring information, so no summary can be made 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2,343.82 (+0.17%), 2,683.42 (-0.17%), and 2,271.47 (+0.56%) respectively. The new energy commodity index was 510.47, with a daily increase of 2.35%, a decrease of 1.02% in the past 5 days, an increase of 12.84% in the past month, and an increase of 23.78% since the beginning of the year [54][56]