尿素2026年度报告：国内供应压力难缓解，关注出口节奏

1. Report's Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downside space for urea is limited, with support at the [1600] price level. The reasons include the recent maintenance of domestic gas - based plants leading to a decline in daily production on a month - on - month basis, but high levels of production and operation rates on a year - on - year basis; domestic demand is mainly for off - season storage, and industrial compound fertilizer production is in a transition period with a month - on - month improvement in demand; and cost support has slightly increased. The cost support for urea is around 1500 - 1550. With the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas, expected to be around 600,000 tons, the specific export volume in the later stage should be monitored. Overall, with off - season storage and export regulation, the downward drive for urea is limited, and it should be treated with a sideways view [3]. - In 2026, the domestic urea market is expected to maintain a pattern of loose supply and demand and continuous inventory accumulation, with the overall supply - demand pressure potentially intensifying. Cost support and export policies will be the key factors of concern. The disk pricing is expected to follow the fundamental logic. The peak agricultural demand season may drive the price to rise periodically, and the price will face pressure to decline after entering the off - season, but the cost of the production process will form a bottom support, and exports will adjust the supply - demand balance through quota regulation. It is recommended to focus on seasonal market trends and grasp the rhythm [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Trend Review - In 2025, the urea price showed a wide - range volatile trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the year, the price fluctuated upwards due to domestic spring - plowing demand and export expectations, but the pressure of oversupply on the supply side gradually emerged. In the second half of the year, affected by the off - season of agricultural demand and the realization of export expectations, the price center continued to move down. The market can be divided into several stages: from mid - January, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, manufacturers' advance orders started, and spot transactions improved; after the Lantern Festival, spring - plowing demand gradually started, and the inventory of urea enterprises decreased rapidly; from mid - June, due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the international urea price rose, which had an impact on the domestic market; from mid - August, due to the weakening of domestic demand and environmental protection policies, the urea price accelerated its decline; from mid - October, with the warming of market trading, the reserve demand increased, and the price gradually rose [16][17]. Urea Supply Side New Capacity Situation - Domestic urea capacity has entered a new expansion cycle in recent years. As of now, coal - based production still dominates, accounting for over 70%, with the proportion of anthracite - based plants decreasing to about 20% and bituminous - coal - based plants increasing to about 55% [30][31]. - In 2025, without considering capacity exit, about 5.44 million tons of new capacity were put into production according to the plan, mainly from factory expansions and upgrades. In 2026, the domestic urea industry is still in the production cycle, with an estimated new production plan of 5.95 million tons and a capacity growth rate of over 7% [36][40]. - Globally, the urea capacity is expected to maintain a growth pattern in 2026, but the growth rate will slow down. The global urea capacity is expected to reach 247 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 0.78% [46]. Production and Operation - In 2025, domestic urea supply remained high due to high capacity and operation rates. The daily production reached over 1.9 million tons in the first quarter, with a peak exceeding 2 million tons. In the second quarter, the daily production continued to rise, remaining above 2 million tons for a long time. In the third quarter, due to high temperatures and frequent equipment failures and maintenance, the daily production decreased to the 1.8 - 1.9 million tons range, but rebounded in September. In the fourth quarter, affected by equipment maintenance and gas restrictions for enterprises in the northwest and southwest, the domestic supply showed a seasonal decline. The overall production in 2025 is expected to reach about 71 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 7.9%. In 2026, if no backward capacity exits or policy adjustments occur, the national urea production is expected to reach 74 - 75 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 5% [60]. Urea Export - In 2025, the cumulative urea export volume from January to October was 4.01 million tons, with a significant year - on - year increase. The total annual quota was about 4.6 million tons, distributed in four batches. The export destinations were relatively scattered, with the Americas being the main destination before August, and the proportion of exports to Southeast Asia increasing significantly after September - October [69]. - In 2025, India had 8 urea import tenders, with a transaction volume of about 9.18 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024. It is estimated that India's domestic urea production in 2025 was about 29.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.56%, and the import volume was about 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 92.82%. In 2026, assuming normal production in India, it is estimated that India will need to import about 8 million tons of urea to maintain domestic supply - demand balance [70]. - For 2026, the export volume of domestic urea still depends on policy guidance. It is expected that exports will still be concentrated in the third and fourth quarters. If the export quota increases, the domestic supply pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the supply pressure will be more severe [65]. Urea Demand Substitute Demand - Synthetic ammonia, as an intermediate product of urea production, is still mainly used for urea production due to the relatively high price difference between urea and synthetic ammonia, and the external sales volume has not increased significantly [107]. - Urea has a cost - performance advantage compared to phosphate and potash fertilizers. The production and export volumes of ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride have increased significantly in 2025, and the supply - demand pattern of nitrogen fertilizers has become looser, with the price ratio of urea to other fertilizers at a relatively high level [115][141]. Agricultural Demand - Urea agricultural demand is seasonal and rigid. The peak demand season is from March to May, and from June to July, the demand for field crops such as rice and corn is high. After August, it enters the off - season. In 2025, the domestic urea agricultural demand consumption was about 29.48 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 2.11%, but the growth rate slowed down compared to previous years. In 2026, the growth rate of urea agricultural demand is expected to further slow down [148][161]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Compound fertilizer accounts for 15% - 20% of the downstream demand for urea. In 2025, the compound fertilizer production was expected to be 58.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.10%, but the average operation rate decreased by about 0.40%. In 2026, the over - supply pressure in the compound fertilizer industry will still exist, and the average operation rate may continue to decline, but the demand for urea will still maintain a growth trend [171]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - Urea - formaldehyde resin accounts for about 20% of the downstream demand for urea. In 2025, the overall operation rate of formaldehyde increased slightly, and the export demand for panels maintained a growth trend, driving the demand for urea to maintain a small increase. It is estimated that the demand for urea from the urea - formaldehyde resin sector in 2025 was about 10.82 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 2.5% [170][172]. Melamine Demand - Melamine accounts for about 7% - 10% of the downstream demand for urea. In 2025, the total melamine production was expected to be about 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%, and the demand for urea was about 4.56 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 170,000 tons. In 2026, the demand for urea from melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to remain stable, with limited highlights [178]. Off - Season Storage Demand - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has some differences compared to previous years, including a reduction in the urea storage ratio, a change in the requirements for individual targets, an extension of the storage period, an adjustment of the storage assessment indicators, and an extension of the release time [190]. Urea Inventory - Enterprise inventory has strong seasonality, usually decreasing in the first half of the year and increasing in the second half. In 2025, due to high supply pressure, the enterprise inventory was at a relatively high level throughout the year, and although there was some destocking in November, the absolute inventory level was still high [199]. - Port inventory is closely related to export policies. After the export quota was officially issued in May 2025, the port inventory increased in an orderly manner. From September to October, with the increase in actual exports, the port inventory decreased rapidly [199]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, the new production capacity of urea is expected to bring an incremental output of about 2 million tons. The annual output is estimated to be around 75 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 4 million tons and a growth rate of about 5.5%. - The export volume is estimated to be about 5.5 million tons, and the annual consumption is estimated to be about 68 million tons. The domestic urea supply - demand will remain in an oversupply pattern throughout the year, and the price will depend on the game between cost and exports [205].