EGPF周报：远月投产预期压制乙二醇反弹高度-20251231

Report Title - EGPF Weekly Strategy 20251228: The Expectation of Future Production Suppresses the Rebound Height of Ethylene Glycol [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For the eq2605 contract, the downside space of MEG is limited, with support at the [3400] price level. In a scenario of weak cost (oil and coal), high self-valuation, and large-scale production in 2026, the EGO1 price will be under pressure. From an actual situation perspective, the inventory reduction from November to December was quite significant, and the expectation of new device production in the far month still exerts pressure. Attention should be paid to the macro level and device changes. In the medium to long - term fundamental perspective, ethylene glycol may enter a new expansion cycle from 2026 - 2027. Approximately 2.15 million tons of new production capacity will be added in 2026, and there are still many large - scale device production plans after 2027. Therefore, the ethylene glycol price will mostly show a bottom consolidation state later [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Unilateral Analysis 1.1 EG - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis. The current absolute level is still at a slightly high neutral level compared to historical periods. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this period, but the absolute level remains at a historical low. The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are around 14.6, with the overall level being slightly high [8]. - As of December 28, 2025, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.16% (a month - on - month increase of 0.18%), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 76.37% (a month - on - month increase of 0.91%) [8][32]. - In terms of oil - based production, many devices have undergone maintenance or load reduction. For example, Maoming Petrochemical's 220,000 - ton device stopped production in early December, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 650,000 - ton device is operating with a slightly reduced load [8][32]. - In terms of coal - based production, some devices have stopped production due to various reasons, and some are in the process of catalyst replacement or restart [9][33]. - Recently, the cost has rebounded, and the supply side has shown a certain contraction, leading to a rebound in the ethylene glycol price. However, the expectation of new device production in the far month still suppresses the rebound space. In the medium - to - long - term, the ethylene glycol price will mostly show a bottom consolidation state [9][23]. 1.2 PF - During this period, the price center of polyester raw materials has risen, the short - fiber profit has been slightly compressed on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn factories has slightly accumulated. - The short - fiber load is currently maintained at a high level, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has been reduced to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn factories has slightly recovered from a low level this period. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn factories has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has slightly increased. Considering the weakening pattern in 2026 compared to 2025, short - fiber trading should mainly focus on shorting the processing spread at high levels, with a reference processing spread above 1400, or hold PF as a short position in the polyester industry chain [10][75]. 2. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries, traders, terminal customers, and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and worried about ethylene glycol price decline, they can hedge 50% of their unsold MEG inventory by short - selling and buy 50% put options to prevent unexpected risks. For example, buy eg2602 - P - 3400 at 19 and short eg2605 at 4200 [5]. - Traders and terminal customers who need to purchase ethylene glycol can buy EG futures contracts according to their procurement plans to prevent price increases, such as buying eg2605 at 3900 [5]. 3. MEG Focus 3.1 Supply - Side Production Rhythm - As of November 2025, the newly put - into - production capacity in the current year was 1.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 5.2%. It is estimated that a total of 1.7 million tons of new capacity will be added in 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 5.9% [20]. 3.2 Demand - Side Production Rhythm - As of November 2025, a total of 2.55 million tons of polyester production capacity has been put into production in the downstream demand side, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle - grade chips and 950,000 tons of polyester filament. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 6% [21]. 3.3 Cost Curve - The process with the largest capacity share is taken as the upper - bound anchor of the price, and the process cost with the highest coal - based production profit is taken as the lower - bound anchor of the price. The cost of ethylene glycol produced by the naphtha - to - ethylene method in East China is 5,185 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 1,200 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene glycol produced by the coal - to - syngas method is 4,480 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 870 yuan/ton [21]. 4. MEG Supply - Demand Situation 4.1 MEG Load - As of December 25, 2025, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.16% (a month - on - month increase of 0.18%), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 76.37% (a month - on - month increase of 0.91%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices are in a state of maintenance, load reduction, or restart [32]. 4.2 MEG Inventory - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis. The current absolute level is still at a slightly high neutral level compared to historical periods. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this period, but the absolute level remains at a historical low. The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are around 14.6, with the overall level being slightly high [36]. 4.3 MEG Direct Demand - Polyester Load - As of this Friday, the preliminary calculation shows that the polyester load in the Chinese mainland is around 90.4%. The average order days of terminal weaving are 10.06 days, a decrease of 1.01 days compared to last week. The average inventory level of terminal weaving finished products (long - fiber cloth) is 28.33 days, an increase of 0.20 days compared to last week. The average inventory level of terminal weaving enterprises' raw materials (polyester filament) is about 12.94 days, an increase of 3.95 days compared to last week [45][46]. 4.4 MEG Direct Demand - Polyester Inventory Absolute Level - The inventory data of various polyester products such as polyester filament POY, FDY, DTY, and short - fiber are presented in the form of time - series charts, showing their inventory changes over time [55][57]. 4.5 MEG Spread and Basis - When approaching the risk - free arbitrage opportunity, a positive spread position can be established for MEG. The MEG basis reflects the spot situation, but due to the mature basis trading, the overall fluctuation is small. The MEG open interest reflects the degree of long - short divergence [59]. 5. PF Weekly Report 5.1 PF Valuation - From 2025 - 2026, short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited, and there is still support at the lower end of the profit. During this period, the price center of polyester raw materials has risen, the short - fiber profit has been slightly compressed on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn factories has slightly accumulated. Considering the weakening pattern in 2026, short - fiber trading should mainly focus on shorting the processing spread at high levels, with a reference processing spread above 1400, or hold PF as a short position in the polyester industry chain [74][75]. 5.2 PF Supply - Demand - The short - fiber supply is maintained at a high level, and the absolute inventory has been reduced to a relatively neutral level. The profit of downstream yarn factories has been relatively stable this period, and the yarn - factory load has been maintained. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn factories has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has slightly increased, with the current absolute inventory level under slightly high pressure [86][96]. 5.3 PF Basis and Spread - The basis and spread data of PF, such as PF2602 basis, are presented in the document, showing their changes over time [98].