招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints The report presents market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply and demand, market performance, and price trends of each commodity, and provides corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. Summary by Categories Basic Metals - Copper: Market rebounded sharply; influenced by silver's decline and Fed's rate - cut decision; supply remains tight. Suggest waiting for volatility to decline [2]. - Aluminum: Price closed slightly lower; supply increased, demand decreased. Expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - Alumina: Price unchanged; supply decreased due to environmental control, demand remained high. Price to stay weak [2]. - Industrial Silicon: Price rose; supply increased, demand from some industries decreased. Expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: Price dropped; supply increased, demand from some sectors decreased, inventory decreased in December. Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: Price rose; supply stable, demand from downstream sectors decreased. Suggest waiting for price to decline to enter the market [3]. - Tin: Price rebounded; supply tight, influenced by silver and Fed's decision. Suggest waiting for buying opportunities [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: Price dropped; inventory decreased, demand weak, supply decreased. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 2605 contract [4]. - Iron Ore: Price dropped; supply increased, demand may decrease. Suggest waiting, reference range 765 - 795 [4][5]. - Coking Coal: Price rose; supply and demand weak, futures overvalued. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 09 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: US soybeans oscillate weakly; domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Core depends on South American output [5]. - Corn: Price oscillated; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [5]. - Edible Oils: Market is in oscillation and differentiation. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [5]. - Cotton: Suggest buying at low prices, reference range 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - Eggs: Price oscillated weakly; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [6]. - Pigs: Price rebounded; supply - demand pressure eased. Futures price expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: Price oscillated; supply pressure increased but slowed, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - PVC: Price dropped; supply - demand is weak, macro situation improved. Suggest reverse arbitrage [7]. - PTA: PX supply is balanced and loose, PTA supply is balanced and tight. Suggest mid - term long - position for PX and focus on 05 contract for PTA [7][8]. - Glass: Price rose; supply - demand expected to improve, undervalued. Suggest waiting [8]. - PP: Price oscillated; supply increased, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8]. - MEG: Price situation; supply is high, inventory increased. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - Crude Oil: Price oscillated; supply pressure is large, demand is in the off - season. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - Styrene: Price oscillated; supply - demand is weak in the short - term. Suggest long - position for styrene or reverse arbitrage for pure benzene in the second quarter [9]. - Soda Ash: Price rose; supply is large, demand is weak. Suggest short - position [9].