节前资金谨慎，基本金属宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to pre - holiday capital prudence, base metals will experience a rise followed by a fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin prices stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 - Copper: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices will continue to operate at high levels. The macro - environment shows US economic resilience and the Fed's easing policies. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and there are expectations of reduced refined copper production. On the demand side, it is in a weak season with inventory accumulation. The risk of LME copper squeezing has weakened. In the future, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - Alumina: Cost support is not effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. On the supply side, there is insufficient real - world contraction and strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak. From the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion, there is pressure on the price. The price may fluctuate more as it enters a low - valuation range. It is expected to remain in a volatile state [7] - Aluminum: Capital sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support continues, and the price will oscillate at high levels. Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. On the supply side, there are risks of production reduction. On the demand side, it may weaken marginally. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [11] - Zinc: Domestic and overseas inventory trends are divergent, and zinc prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and production may decline. On the demand side, it is in the off - season with limited new orders. In the short term, prices may oscillate at high levels, and in the long term, there may be a downward trend [12][13] - Lead: Lead prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals, and supply - demand may weaken. On the supply side, production may increase as smelters resume production. On the demand side, battery enterprise operating rates are declining, and demand is weakening marginally. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile state [14][15] - Nickel: Expectations of Indonesian policies cause disruptions, and nickel prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, but Indonesia's planned reduction of nickel ore production in 2026 may change the situation. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [15][19] - Stainless Steel: Rising nickel prices drive up the stainless - steel market. Cost support exists, and production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [20][22] - Tin: Pre - holiday long - position reduction causes a correction in tin prices. On the supply side, there are risks and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [22][23] 2.行情监测 - Copper: Not provided in the given content - Alumina: Not provided in the given content - Aluminum: Not provided in the given content - Aluminum Alloy: Not provided in the given content - Zinc: Not provided in the given content - Lead: Not provided in the given content - Nickel: Not provided in the given content - Stainless Steel: Not provided in the given content - Tin: Not provided in the given content 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index was 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2271.47, up 0.56%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2675.54, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day increase of 1.47%, a 1 - month increase of 6.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.91% [147][149]