集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European line) fluctuated at a high level yesterday [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate [11]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher win - rate, and its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, with several potential upward risks in the next 1 - 2 months [13]. - For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and set up short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2602 closed at 1,795.1, down 2.08% with a trading volume of 24,777 and an open interest of 27,855 (down 2,582); EC2604 closed at 1,160.2, down 0.38% with a trading volume of 7,238 and an open interest of 21,241 (up 4) [1]. - Freight Rate Index: SCFIS European route was 1,742.64 points, up 9.7% week - on - week; SCFIS US - West route was 1,301.41 points, up 35.3% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; SCFI US - West route was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the European line from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, such as Maersk's $2,600/40'GP and $1,620/20'GP, with different voyage days [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.01, and the US dollar against offshore RMB was 7.00 [1]. 3.2 Capacity - In the past week, the absolute value of January capacity changed little, about 313,000 TEU/week, with a more even distribution of sailings in January. The fifth - week supply increased slightly to 328,000 TEU. February currently has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending sailings, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding the 5 pending sailings). GEMINI Alliance has released the Spring Festival suspension plan, while other carriers are expected to release theirs in early January [11]. 3.3 Analysis of Contracts - 2602 Contract - Freight Rate Height: Maersk's rates increased by $100 in the third week. OA Alliance's OOCL's online prices are between $3,000 - $3,100/FEU, and Evergreen's offline prices are between $2,800 - $2,900/FEU. PA Alliance adjusted FAK to around $2,800/FEU in the first half of January [12]. - Inflection Point Time: With Maersk's price increase in the third week, the spot inflection point may be in the fourth week [12]. - Price - decline Rate: The initial decline after the freight rate peaks may be small, and the accelerated decline may start in the fifth week [12]. - 2604 Contract - Short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher win - rate. Its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index (1,031 points). There are several potential upward risks in the next 1 - 2 months, including contract - changing subsidy risks, margin - increasing and position - reducing risks before the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks during the festival, and carriers' price - increasing risks after the festival [13]. - 2610 Contract - Pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and set up short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]