宁证期货今日早评-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed chairperson selection may be announced soon, which will determine market expectations for next year's interest rate cuts. Tight liquidity in the US at the end of the year is negative for gold, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts, but the easing cycle continues. The market expects a pause in January, so silver may reach a phased top and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. - Macro - policies will maintain a "double - loose" tone in 2026, which boosts market sentiment and supports steel prices. However, the steel market is in a weak balance, and short - term steel prices may oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron ore supply is relatively stable, and demand is gradually stabilizing. With port inventories accumulating and strong upstream - downstream gaming, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with upstream inventory pressure capping prices. In the medium term, prices will oscillate around cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs is abundant, and short - term pig prices will continue to rebound and adjust [5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are strong. Market expectations of reduced production and import profit inversion support palm oil prices, which are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - The spot price of soybean meal has a clear bottom support, while the main contract is suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as they seek a new balance between "real - world pressure" and "long - term narratives" [8]. - Oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors and should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA supply has not fully recovered, and there is no inventory - building pressure in January. A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term, considering factors such as production and demand [11]. - Long - term government bonds should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and the relationship between the stock and bond markets [11]. - Methanol supply and demand remain weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with prices expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - Gold: Fed chairperson news and year - end liquidity affect it. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - Silver: Fed meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts. It may reach a phased top, and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. Metals - Steel: Macro - policies support prices, but the market is in a weak balance, and short - term prices will oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron Ore: Supply is stable, demand is stabilizing, and prices will oscillate in the short term [4]. - Manganese - Silicon: Supply - demand is loose, and prices will oscillate around cost in the medium term [5]. - Copper: Prices will maintain a high - level oscillation as they balance short - term and long - term factors [8]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: Overall supply is abundant, and short - term prices will rebound and adjust [5]. - Palm Oil: Exports to the US are strong, and prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - Soybean Meal: Spot has bottom support, and the 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by supply - demand and geopolitics, prices should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA: Supply has not fully recovered, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural Rubber: Prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term [11]. - Methanol: Supply and demand are weak, and prices will oscillate in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with short - term price oscillation expected [13]. - PVC: Prices will oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to supply, demand, and cost factors [14]. Bonds - Long - term Government Bonds: An oscillatory mindset is recommended, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and market relationships [11].